June 1st, 2013 Storm potential

[tice23]

I think Saturday is looking pretty favorable right now for the afternoon, I'm getting my gear ready. I just hope it doesn't graze us to the south. Bound for London and Area at 8am.

[tice23]

hmmm. not so sure now. looks like they trimmed back the severe region significantly on their last update...

[Stormydude]

That's really annoying because yesterday was terrible for some places....such as Kitchener... I was really looking forward to having a second chance.

[tice23]

I still haven't given up all hope but its not the ideal situation right now. I mean it is warm already at 20C with high humidity but the cloud cover over most of southern Ontario is going to hamper the surface heat. there is wind from the south which hopefully keeps those clouds moving north and opening up a clear zone in the south but its really hard to say. I was looking forward to today since Tuesday :/

Also, the SPC has changed their model several times since 11pm last night every time i check its completely different. there were figures for 2% 5% 10% tornado probabilities with the tip at windsor...now that's been updated to a 2% across the entire forcast region down to texas and the region now looks to extend up into the south of ontario again, along with the severe outlook raising to 15% as far north as (I would guess) woodstock...its almost as if they also have no idea what might happen here which means today is a real gamble...

[Stormydude]

The sky has let the sun though now. Hopefully it helps develop some kind of storm... I'm still disappointed about yesterday.

[tice23]

I'm going to chance it anyway. Hopefully I find something this afternoon. Off to the south end I go.

[obwan]

i like the look of the line of showers extending from georgian bay through owen sound down to chatham could brove good for us in south central ontario

[obwan]

some action starting to come across the niagara peninsula, things popping up quick with temps of 29C and dewpoints of 20C could see something happen but to our east is where things will really pop like usual.

soem slight rotation in the storm north of dunnville

[DarkSky]

We just had an intense wind/rain storm pass through, with minimal thunder. Here's the outlook for today from EC:

594 
 ACCN10 CWTO 010750
 FORECAST OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
 ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:28 AM EDT SATURDAY 1 JUNE 2013.
 THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 4.00 AM SATURDAY.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 FORECAST OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TODAY..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
 SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ONTARIO. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
 DOWNPOURS GIVING LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MM IN AN HOUR OR LESS
 ARE THE MAIN THREATS. OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO, A FEW NON-SEVERE
 THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. SOME OF THESE MAY
 APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
 AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND
 EASTERN ONTARIO. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS GIVING
 LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MM IN AN HOUR OR LESS ARE THE MAIN
 THREATS. OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO, ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
 THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY..ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
 ONTARIO.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 A THUNDERSTORM IS DEFINED AS SEVERE IF IT PRODUCES ONE OR MORE OF THE
 FOLLOWING:

 - WIND GUSTS OF 90 KM/H OR GREATER.
  - HAIL OF 2 CENTIMETRES IN DIAMETER OR GREATER.
  - RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50 MILLIMETRES OR GREATER IN ONE HOUR OR LESS.
  - A TORNADO.

NOTE: THIS FORECAST IS ISSUED TWICE DAILY FROM MAY 1 TO SEPTEMBER  30.

END/OSPC

[tice23]

Back home again. Not a very eventful chase for me.

Started out a little late, overshot the line of storms because i didn't have my maps going until I got to woodstock. It looked favorable at the time, the wind was picking up and the clouds got dark...then i turned on and looked at my radar and noticed the cells i was really looking for were already far northeast of me. I overshot by a lot.

backtracked towards toronto,

the only cell i really encountered passed through the north end of Brampton a few hours ago. oh well. The storms did start to pick up intensity once east of the 400 but I wasn't in the mood to chase those since not much was happening except rain and i was on the road for almost 5h at that point and at least 1h from intercepting the larger of the cells that went over newmarket, so i called it a day.

a few pictures of rain clouds was all i got and not really worth posting