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2010 Storms of 2009 - specific weather events posted by date

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  #1  
Old 06-04-2010, 10:54 AM
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Photos Jun.4/10 - Severe thunderstorms / tornado warning

Well, this threat came out of no where, it seems.

For southern Ontario from the SPC:
30% chance of damaging winds
15% chance of hail
5% chance of a tornado

Code:
 TSTMS SHOULD FORM IN AREA OF SFC HEATING AHEAD OF CLOUD SHIELD FROM
   CNTRL IL INTO IND/OH THIS AFTN.  STORMS ALSO MAY FORM A BIT FARTHER
   N IN ZONE OF CONFLUENT 850 MB FLOW OVER SRN LWR MI.  
   A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN MI/NRN IND AND
   NRN OH.  THESE COULD YIELD DMGG WIND AND A TORNADO.  BUT
   INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH TIME SUGGESTS THAT ACTIVITY
   WILL TRANSITION TO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS...WITH EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS
   YIELDING DMGG WIND.  THE STORMS MAY SPREAD AS FAR E AS THE LWR GRT
   LKS BY EVE...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
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Old 06-04-2010, 11:11 AM
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Default Re: June 4: Southern Ontario/Risk of a Tornado?

Only slight risk for today: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/dy1.gif

.. and EC has forecast (for St. Catharine at least) of only partial clouds today with a high of 23C.

Hopefully daytime heating will bring something in the afternoon, but I'm not too excited about today (yet)
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Old 06-04-2010, 11:18 AM
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Default Re: June 4: Southern Ontario/Risk of a Tornado?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkSky View Post
Only slight risk for today: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/dy1.gif

.. and EC has forecast (for St. Catharine at least) of only partial clouds today with a high of 23C.

Hopefully daytime heating will bring something in the afternoon, but I'm not too excited about today (yet)
After overlaying the 5% TOR onto a map of S ON counties, judging by the curve of the 2% over western NY, looks like the 5% extends to almost Barrie, but stating north of Toronto and south of Owen Sound. Hard to tell, though.

Satelite looks great, tons of clearing: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/sate..._smDTW_vis.jpg

Aww, I just remembered I work at 5pm. Dang it!
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Last edited by Derecho; 06-04-2010 at 11:31 AM.
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Old 06-04-2010, 12:48 PM
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Default Re: June 4: Southern Ontario/Risk of a Tornado?

SPC has kept the 5% tornado probs for S ON at 1630z. HRRR shows some thunderstorms crossing SW/SE Ontario starting around 22z around 5pm.
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Old 06-04-2010, 04:00 PM
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Default Re: June 4: Southern Ontario/Risk of a Tornado?

The severe thunderstorm risk has been dropped for all but Essex County by the SPC.
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Old 06-04-2010, 04:36 PM
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Default Re: June 4: Southern Ontario/Risk of a Tornado?

I swear some of my favourite chase days have been when we are not even in the slight risk. So many times I have noticed when we are in a medium risk zone or 5 % tornado we wind up with a muggy precip washout.
Does SPC take into account lake-breeze effects of the great lakes or is that something that we are more in tune with ?????
At least 2/3 of any really good storm I have chased has been a result from them
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Old 06-04-2010, 09:02 PM
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Default Re: June 4: Southern Ontario/Risk of a Tornado?

Looks like there could be some golfball sized hail in detriot metro aswell as windsor
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Old 06-04-2010, 09:17 PM
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Default Re: June 4: Southern Ontario/Risk of a Tornado?

Storm near windosr is showing a messo on w undeground
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Old 06-04-2010, 10:29 PM
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Default Re: June 4: Southern Ontario/Risk of a Tornado?

Severe storms moving towards the hammer hopefully
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Old 06-04-2010, 10:34 PM
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Default Re: June 4: Southern Ontario/Risk of a Tornado?

At 10:20 PM EDT Doppler radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms from near Chatham to Wheatley. This line of severe thunderstorms was moving toward the east at 60 km/h, and was capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h.

Doppler radar has indicated some weak rotation within this line. While not immediately likely, tornadoes cannot be ruled out with this line of thunderstorms.
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