Ontario Storms Site!  

Go Back   Ontario Storms Site! > Ontario Storms Forums > The Truck Stop: Storm Talk & Chit-Chat

The Truck Stop: Storm Talk & Chit-Chat General talk on past, current, and future storms - all talk about UPCOMING storms goes here

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 07-06-2012, 05:10 PM
Storm Chaser's Avatar
Storm Chaser Storm Chaser is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hamilton, ON
Posts: 171
Thanks: 7
Thanked 51 Times in 29 Posts
Default July 7th Storm Risk

It seems likely a morning-mid-day MCS will track across Southern Ontario tomorrow. EC says one or two of the storms could become severe, SPC has areas south of a line from Sarnia to Guelph to Kingston under a 5% risk, however I believe anywhere in Southern Ontario has a shot at a decent storm tomorrow with possible damaging winds. Wake up early and check the radar!
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 07-06-2012, 07:58 PM
Storm Chaser's Avatar
Storm Chaser Storm Chaser is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hamilton, ON
Posts: 171
Thanks: 7
Thanked 51 Times in 29 Posts
Default Re: July 7th Storm Risk

UPDATE: Latest hrrr run shows what appears to be a possible supercell beginning on the huron shores near grand bend and tracking into Hamilton at approx. 7am tomorrow. Keep an eye out!
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 07-06-2012, 09:50 PM
areid's Avatar
areid areid is offline
Rank: Rain Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Niagara Falls, ON
Posts: 21
Thanks: 9
Thanked 6 Times in 3 Posts
Default Re: July 7th Storm Risk

This may be a newb question, but what is an "hrrr run". I'm assuming it is some sort of forecast model. There are lots of great links on here to live radar, but I'm still a little lost on where to fine forecast models?

Thanks for the help in advance.
__________________
Niagara Falls, ON
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 07-06-2012, 10:07 PM
Storm Chaser's Avatar
Storm Chaser Storm Chaser is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hamilton, ON
Posts: 171
Thanks: 7
Thanked 51 Times in 29 Posts
Default Re: July 7th Storm Risk

The hrrr is a high res model with a variety of fields that can be viewed for the next 15 hours. I use it mainly for future radar predictions using the composite reflectivity field. Here is the link to the NE region hrrr runs. Select any field you want for whichever hour you wish or hit loop to loop all the frames. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrcon...Jun+2010+-+17Z
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 07-06-2012, 10:10 PM
Storm Chaser's Avatar
Storm Chaser Storm Chaser is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hamilton, ON
Posts: 171
Thanks: 7
Thanked 51 Times in 29 Posts
Default Re: July 7th Storm Risk

For fields such as CAPE, shear, lifted indicies, precip forecasts, temperatre, wind, refer to this site which shows data for the RAP, NAM, and GFS models: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php...&archive=false
Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Storm Chaser For This Useful Post:
areid (07-06-2012)
  #6  
Old 07-06-2012, 10:16 PM
areid's Avatar
areid areid is offline
Rank: Rain Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Niagara Falls, ON
Posts: 21
Thanks: 9
Thanked 6 Times in 3 Posts
Default Re: July 7th Storm Risk

Thanks a lot! I'm hoping to stay motivated to drag my butt out of bed early enough tomorrow to be able to decide which direction to drive in haha
__________________
Niagara Falls, ON
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 07-06-2012, 10:21 PM
Storm Chaser's Avatar
Storm Chaser Storm Chaser is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hamilton, ON
Posts: 171
Thanks: 7
Thanked 51 Times in 29 Posts
Default Re: July 7th Storm Risk

If you dont have the program Gr Level 3, it is the best consumer radar viewing program to use. I use it for chasing all the time and love it. http://www.grlevelx.com/grlevel3_2/ that is the link to get it, you can get a 21 day trial period. GPS overlay is extremely effective for chasing along with spotternetwork feeds
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 07-06-2012, 10:23 PM
davefootball123's Avatar
davefootball123 davefootball123 is offline
Rank: Supercell Chaser
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Hamilton
Posts: 747
Thanks: 49
Thanked 103 Times in 81 Posts
Default Re: July 7th Storm Risk

Hey guys, I see the link to HRRR that Storm Chaser posted is for a set date/time so here is the link to the main hrrr page. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/

You can choose either 3km Conus Hourly which is hour by hour high res forecast or you can choose 3km 15minute which is the same except in 15 minute intervals. When you click either one you will be brought to the latest run. You can chose your area(best is NE for us) and you can also choose the run time via the drop down menus.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 07-06-2012, 10:25 PM
Storm Chaser's Avatar
Storm Chaser Storm Chaser is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hamilton, ON
Posts: 171
Thanks: 7
Thanked 51 Times in 29 Posts
Default Re: July 7th Storm Risk

If you would like to wake up in time, 8am is likely a good time to aim for. Storms may come later but some runs have storms coming in even before then.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 07-06-2012, 10:27 PM
davefootball123's Avatar
davefootball123 davefootball123 is offline
Rank: Supercell Chaser
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Hamilton
Posts: 747
Thanks: 49
Thanked 103 Times in 81 Posts
Default Re: July 7th Storm Risk

It all depends how the storms in MN/WI play out tonight. I think the HRRR may be overdoing early convection a bit. That would mean a better chance at some more convection in the afternoon. Then again thats only one model. Who knows what may occur.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

PICTURE OF THE MOMENT - Photo by: Itchy (Apr.12, 2014, London, ON)


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:46 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
All original material copyright OntarioStorms.com, all 3rd party material copyrights held by original publisher