Hurricane Earl - Atlantic Canada Threat

[Derecho]

Hurricane Earl is currently located east of the Leeward Islands as a category one hurricane.

Models are really starting to come into agreement with where Earl is going, and some models are hinting at a Nova Scotia landfall next weekend.

Current NHC track takes Earl around the Delmarva Peninsula by Friday at 8am as a category three major hurricane. It could landfall anywhere from Long Island, NY to Cape Cod, MA then shoot northeast along the jet back into open waters, then landfall again around the Bay of Fundy area. If this were to occur, Earl would undergo considerable weakening as he would interact with land then emerge back over waters which would be very cold temperature wise. This could even lead to a subtropical storm or hurricane.

Another scenario is that Earl could just skirt Cape Cod, MA then speed up northeast and slam into Nova Scotia, or just brush Nova Scotia while remaining over open waters the possibly affecting NFLD.

The EURO for 24 hours now has been consistent with a Nova Scotia landfall around the Bay of Fundy area as a minimal hurricane, category one or two. The EURO also keeps Earl largely offshore New England, which would allow Earl to maintain hurricane strength.

Below is a zoomed in graphic of the EURO long range forecast for Sat. Sept. 4.10 at 00z.

Will be interesting to monitor the progress of Earl to see how Atlantic Canada may be impacted.

[Derecho]

12z EURO run has changed Earl's track back to the west for 120 hours. EURO has also increased the pressure to 947mb, which means a more intense hurricane. Looks like Earl just misses Cape Cod on this run then slams into Nova Scotia shortly after.

The NHC has adjusted the track at 11am to include a possible direct landfall on Nova Scotia as at least a category two hurricane.

[Derecho]

HURRICANE EARL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT TUESDAY
31 AUGUST 2010.

...HURRICANE EARL APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...LIKELY TO
  IMPACT EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 68.5 W... ABOUT 230 NAUTICAL MILES OR 425 KM
NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 115 KNOTS... 213 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 939 MB. EARL IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS... 22 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
         ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 31  3.00 PM  21.5N  68.5W   940  115  213
SEP 01  3.00 AM  23.1N  70.4W   942  120  222
SEP 01  3.00 PM  25.5N  72.3W   942  120  222
SEP 02  3.00 AM  28.3N  73.9W   948  115  213
SEP 02  3.00 PM  31.4N  74.8W   952  110  204
SEP 03  3.00 AM  34.9N  74.0W   961  100  185
SEP 03  3.00 PM  38.6N  71.5W   970   90  167
SEP 04  3.00 AM  42.1N  68.1W   973   85  157
SEP 04  3.00 PM  45.9N  63.7W   980   75  139 TRANSITIONING
SEP 05  3.00 AM  49.8N  59.6W   990   60  111 TRANSITIONING
SEP 05  3.00 PM  54.6N  54.0W   994   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO WARNINGS TO SPEAK
OF HERE AS EARL IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY CURRENTLY NO WARNINGS
IN EFFECT. AS EARL APPROACHES THE MARITIMES,
 WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEK..AND FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT THIS COMING WEEKEND.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEORLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS EARL HAS BEEN WOBBLING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON BOTH
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO THE EYEWALL
DISPLACEMENT CYCLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTHWEST OF EARL SHOWS AN
AREA OF DRY AIR WHICH MAY INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

B. PROGNOSTIC FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

 EARL IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AS IT IS
BEEING STEERED BY THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. AS IT NEARS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, EARL WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE 48-72
HOUR TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER THEY BECOME DIVERGENT THEREAFTER. THERE
REMAINS A WIDE RANGE OF TRACK SCENERIOS LATER IN THE WEEK, RANGING
FROM A POTENTIAL LANDFALL AS FAR WEST AS MAINE AND AS FAR EAST AS
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

 AT THIS POINT...PROBABLISTIC COMPUTER MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ABOUT A
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS (60-70 KM/H) OVER LAND
IN NOVA SCOTIA. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATES A
 CATEGORY-ONE HURRICANE LANDFALL IN WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA..THIS ONLY
REFLECTS THE AVERAGE OF MANY SCENARIOS AND LANDFALL LOCATIONS 3 TO 4
DAYS AWAY. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 75 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARL ENTERING CANADIAN FORECAST WATERS AS A HURRICANE AND
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LANDFALLING HURRICANE IN NOVA SCOTIA.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO GIVE DETAILED IMPACTS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY TREND.

D. MARINE WEATHER TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO GIVE DETAILED IMPACTS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY TREND.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
        NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
31/18Z  175 150 120 160   120 120  60  75    60  50  25  45
01/06Z  175 150 120 160   120 120  60  75    60  50  25  45
01/18Z  175 150 120 160   120 120  60  75    60  50  25  45
02/06Z  175 150 120 160   120 120  60  75    60  50  25  45
02/18Z  175 150 120 160   120 120  60  75    60  50  25  45
03/06Z  165 150 110 150   100 100  50  65    50  50  25  40
03/18Z  150 140 100 140    90  90  45  60    45  45  20  30
04/06Z  130 120  80 110    70  70  35  50    30  30  20  30
04/18Z  130 120  65  90    50  50  25  40    20  20  10  10
05/06Z  140 140  65 100    35  35  20  30     0   0   0   0
05/18Z  160 160  75 120    25  25  10  15     0   0   0   0

END FOGARTY/MARCH

[Derecho]

The CHC expects to issue further watches later today.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:40 AM ADT THURSDAY 2 SEPTEMBER 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
     QUEENS COUNTY
     SHELBURNE COUNTY
     YARMOUTH COUNTY.

     IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI THE
     CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS POSTED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

     A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM OR AN
     INCIPIENT TROPICAL STORM CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO
     THE SPECIFIED AREAS LISTED ABOVE.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF HURRICANE EARL
COULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
FURTHER DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE 4.00 PM PUBLIC FORECAST WHICH
WILL COVER THE FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST PERIOD IN GREATER DETAIL.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/..

HURRICANE EARL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.04 AM ADT THURSDAY
02 SEPTEMBER 2010.

..MAJOR HURRICANE EARL MOVING TOWARDS CAPE HATTERAS..WILL AFFECT
THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY..

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 N
AND LONGITUDE 74.8 W... ABOUT 310 NAUTICAL MILES OR 575 KM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS... 230 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 938 MB. EARL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
         ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 02  9.00 AM  30.1N  74.8W   928  125  230
SEP 02  9.00 PM  33.2N  74.9W   935  120  222
SEP 03  9.00 AM  36.6N  73.3W   950  110  204
SEP 03  9.00 PM  40.5N  69.8W   964   90  167
SEP 04  9.00 AM  44.9N  65.5W   974   75  139 TRANSITIONING
SEP 04  9.00 PM  49.4N  62.0W   980   65  120 TRANSITIONING
SEP 05  9.00 AM  54.2N  58.8W   981   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 05  9.00 PM  58.5N  55.5W   980   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 06  9.00 AM  62.5N  51.8W   980   40   74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NHC IN MIAMI TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WERE
POSTED FOR YARMOUTH.. SHELBURNE.. AND QUEENS COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA
EARLIER THIS MORNING.  IT IS LIKELY THESE WATCHES.. INCLUDING
HURRICANE WATCHES.. WILL BE EXTENDED TO OTHER REGIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA..NEW BRUNSWICK.. AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND LATER TODAY.

LANDFALL OF EARL MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
TO THE FUNDY COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
DETAILS OF THE PUBLIC IMPACTS WILL BE ASSESSED FURTHER LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT HIGH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
AFFECT THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WIND SPEED
INFORMATION WILL APPEAR IN OUR NEXT BULLETIN AT 3.00 PM.

THE PUBLIC SHOULD CERTAINLY PAY CLOSE ATTENTION REGARDING WEEKEND
PLANS THAT MAY BE SENSITIVE TO HIGH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN CONDITIONS.
IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST DECISIONS AND RATIONALE. THESE ARE ISSUED FOUR
TIMES DAILY.


4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BROWNS BANK AND GEORGES BANK
WITH THE APPROACH OF EARL FRIDAY EVENING. IT IS VERY LIKELY
THAT THESE GALES WILL BE EXPANDED TO OTHER MARINE AREAS
AND THAT STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS WILL
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC CANADIAN MARINE DISTRICT.
THESE WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED WITH 3.00 AM FRIDAY MORNING MARINE
FORECAST.

OCEAN SWELL WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST TODAY WELL
AHEAD OF EARL.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF EARL HIGH WAVES AND POUNDING SURF CAN
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AND ALONG THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE COASTLINES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH WATER LEVELS AT THE COAST COULD BE AN ISSUE IF THE ARRIVAL
OF EARL IS TIMED WITH HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING
WILL BE ASSESSED FURTHER AS WE GET CLOSER TO EARL'S ARRIVAL.


5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEORLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EARL WITH DISTINCT EYE AND CLASSIC OUTFLOW
PATTERN.  THE MOTION CONTINUES WITH ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  IT WAS
NOTED THAT BOUY 41047 REPORTED 9.6 METRE SEAS 100 NAUTICAL MILES
DUE EAST OF EARL.

B. PROGNOSTIC

EARL IS ROUNDING THE WESTERNMOST FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HENCE WILL GRADUALLY TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
DAY.  THEREAFTER IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY GUIDED BY AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL CAUSE IT TO ACCELERATE
THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA AS IT WEAKENS.  GIVEN THE HIGH POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURES OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE MARITIMES EARL MAY CONTINUE TO
HOLD ONTO ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WELL INTO OUR REGION.  AS
POINTED OUT IN PREVIOUS MESSAGES.. WATER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ARE ABOVE NORMAL BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES AND HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY
WARM DURING THE LATTER PART OF AUGUST.  THIS FACTOR WILL PLAY INTO
OUR FORECAST OF INTENSITY AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THOSE WATERS.
ALSO EARL WILL BE MOVING INTO A PRE-EXISTING TROPICAL AIRMASS AS IS
BEING EXPERIENCED OVER EASTERN CANADA RECENTLY. THAT COULD PERMIT
EARL TO RETAIN MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ENTERS OUR REGION.

ULTIMATELY.. THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA AND STEADILY DRAIN EARL OF ITS ENERGY AS EARL BECOMES
GRADUALLY INCORPORATED INTO THIS FEATURE.  FRICTIONAL DEGRADATION IS
ANOTHER FACTOR WHICH WILL WEAKEN EARL.

A MULTITUDE OF NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE ON EARL'S FORECAST TRACK TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA.  AS A
RESULT.. OUR CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT EARL WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER.. OUR EXPERIENCE
SHOWS THAT WE MUST CAUTIOUS AT THE SAME TIME.  THOUGH OUR ENVELOPE
OF POSSIBILIIES ON EARL'S TRACK IS NARROWING.. EARL COULD END
UP AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK OR AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN
MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK MAP POSTED ON OUR WEBSITES.. ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC IN
TERMS OF A LINE MARKED WITH STORM POSITIONS AT SPECIFIC TIMES AND
SHOWING EARL AS A LANDFALLING CATEGORY-ONE HURRICANE..SIMPLY
REPRESENTS THE AVERAGE OF MANY FACTORS.

PROBABILISTIC COMPUTER MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ABOUT A 90 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS (60 TO 70 KM/H) OVER LAND IN
NOVA SCOTIA. OUR STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT AN 90 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARL ENTERING CANADIAN FORECAST WATERS AS A HURRICANE..AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LAND FALLING HURRICANE IN NOVA SCOTIA
OR NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EARL BEING
AT HURRICANE STATUS AFTER CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA INTO PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND LANDFALL TIME COULD BE AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING..TO SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


C. PUBLIC WEATHER

ASYMMETRIES IN THE WIND AND RAIN FIELDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STORM
MOVES TOWARD THE MARITIMES. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD
THE FRONT AND LEFT SIDE OF THE STORM AND HIGHEST WINDS CONCENTRATED
TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM TRACK.  THIS IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND
WHEN CONSIDERING THE TRACK FORECAST RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION.
HIGHEST RAINFALLS WITH STORMS LIKE THIS WILL LIKELY BE TO THE LEFT
(WEST) OF THE STORM TRACK. LATER TODAY WE WILL INTRODUCE ESTIMATES OF
WIND SPEEDS AND RAINFALL IN A TRACK-RELATIVE SENSE..THEN ESTABLISH
GEOGRAPHICALLY-SPECIFIC DETAILS GOING INTO FRIDAY. REGARDING
RAINFALL POTENTIAL..FOR A STORM OF THIS NATURE..2500 DIVIDED BY
TWICE THE STORM SPEED IN KNOTS IS A RULE OF THUMB FOR RAINFALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CORE.  THAT ROUGHLY EQUATES TO 40 TO 70 MM
POTENTIAL.

END FOGARTY/BORGEL/CAMPBELL

[Derecho]

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:11 PM ADT THURSDAY 2 SEPTEMBER 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST
=NEW= HALIFAX COUNTY - EAST OF PORTERS LAKE
=NEW= LUNENBURG COUNTY
=NEW= ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
=NEW= KINGS COUNTY
=NEW= HANTS COUNTY
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY - TRURO AND SOUTH
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY - COBEQUID BAY
=NEW= CUMBERLAND COUNTY - MINAS SHORE
=NEW= SAINT JOHN AND COUNTY
=NEW= GRAND MANAN AND COASTAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY
=NEW= MONCTON AND SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK
=NEW= FUNDY NATIONAL PARK.

HURRICANE EARL IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES. MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH 90 KM/H OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT A TROPICAL STORM OR AN INCIPIENT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
AREAS WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY
=NEW= SHELBURNE COUNTY
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY.

HURRICANE EARL IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MARITIMES. MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH 130 KM/H OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS BEGINNING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT HURRICANE
CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN
36 TO 48 HOURS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
AT NOON THURSDAY THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 485 KM
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVING NORTHWARD AT
30 KM/H. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK EARL IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TO THE FUNDY COAST OF
NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

STRONG WINDS ... GUSTING AS HIGH AS 130 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...UP AS
FAR AS THE EASTERN SHORE...AND THE BAY OF FUNDY MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
COULD REACH 90 KM/H.

HEAVY RAIN ... AMOUNTING TO 40 TO 70 MILLIMETRES COULD FALL OVER
THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY AS EARL TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ENVIRONMENT CANADA FORECASTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION.

END/..

[DarkSky]

Good satellite loop here: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html (click visible loop link)

[davefootball123]

AWCN11 CWHX 050746
Special weather summary message for Nova Scotia issued by Environment
Canada at 4:46 AM ADT Sunday 5 September 2010.

The following is a preliminary summary of hurricane Earl and its
Effects as it crossed the Maritimes on Saturday September 4 2010...

Hurricane Earl made landfall along the south shore of Nova Scotia at 
approximately 10:30 AM ADT in the vicinity of the Shelburne/Queens
County border.  The preliminary analysis by the Canadian Hurricane
Centre indicates that Earl made landfall as a category 1 hurricane 
with an intensity of 65 knots / 119 km/h.

Soon after landfall Earl was downgraded to a tropical storm but 
remained very intense as it tracked rapidly northeastward across
Lunenburg... Hants... And Colchester counties before moving into the 
Northumberland strait and across Eastern Queens County Prince Edward
Island Saturday afternoon.  Tropical storm Earl continued into the 
Gulf of St Lawrence passing just west of iles de la Madeleine late
In the afternoon.  Earl was declared post-tropical later Saturday 
night as it moved out of the Gulf of St Lawrence.

The following are some notable rainfall totals and peak wind gusts 
from hurricane Earl reported at various stations across Nova Scotia, 
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.

Nova Scotia...

Location                    rainfall (mm)   peak wind gust (km/h)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Beaver Island (eastern shore)                   135
McNabs Island                                   130
Obsborne head                                   128
Halifax harbour approaches buoy                 122
Halifax stanfield airport       52.0            120
Shearwater jetty                23.1            117
Bedford Basin                                   115
Lunenburg                                       111
Antigonish Harbour (acoww)                      110
Hart Island                                     109
Caribou Point                    9.7            108
Grand Etang                                     115
Baccaro Point                   19.6            102
Port Hawkesbury                 25.4            100
Upper Stewiacke                 21.6            100
Western Head                    24.0             98
Lockeport (Canwarn)                              98
Debert                          32.1             89
Sydney airport                  18.4             90
Kejimkujik nat'l'park           46.2
Greenwood                       41.4             65
Kentville                       40.0
Parrsboro                       32.0             67
Yarmouth airport                26.8             63
Pockwock lake (COOLTAP)         53.0
Northeast Margaree              32.6

Prince Edward Island...

Location                    rainfall (mm)   peak wind gust (km/h)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
East Point                      14.1             98
Charlottetown                   30.0             78
Summerside                      15.5             70
North point                     28.6             85
St Peter's                      28.2             79
Harrington                      25.5             76
Maple plain                     24.8             69

Iles de la Madeleine            31.2            100

New Brunswick...

Location                    rainfall (mm)   peak wind gust (km/h)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Moncton                         21.2             80
Miscou Island                   26.1             74
Saint John                      12.7             70
Bas Caraquet                    36.4             65
Edmunston                       76.5
Florenceville (NB fire)         67.1
Big Tracadie (NB fire)          61.0
Brockway (NB fire)              58.2
Lunts brook (NB fire)           55.9
St Stephen                      55.2
Fredericton                     47.9
Bantalor (NB fire)              45.7
Fredericton airport             42.6
Gagetown                        41.5
Mulligan gulch  (NB fire)       37.3
Mechanic Settlement             34.1
Robinson tower  (NB fire)       34.0
Miramichi                       33.4
Bouctouche                      23.3
Kouchibouguac                   25.0
Charlo                          21.8
St Léonard                      23.4
Grand Manan                     16.4
Point Lepreau                   20.3
Bathurst                        13.4


In addition to very strong winds and bands of heavy rain, hurricane 
Earl generated some very high waves offshore.  A buoy over west
Scotian Slope reported a peak wave height of 25.1 metres, and a
Buoy in the approaches to Halifax harbour reported a peak wave of 
23.3 metres.  Both these buoys reported sustained winds at or very 
near hurricane force.

END/ASPC