Possible Major Winter Storm Tuesday into Wednesday

[Storm Chaser]

Models are coming into agreement on a winter storm hammering Southern Ontario on the 26th into the 27th. The GFS, GEM, CMC, and so far the NAM are all pointing towards a significant event, possibly larger than the 30+cm storm that pummeled many regions on the 8th. As of now, models are hinting at 30-40cm of heavy, wet snow for some areas, especially the Golden Horshoe. The GFS even has small areas of 16-24" although that seems a bit high atm. The storm will likely also bring strong winds, which combined with the heavy, wet snow on trees and power lines could cause many power outages. Post updates and comments on this upcoming event here!
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php...&archive=false

[davefootball123]

Still quite a bit of uncertainty with this one. Rain/Snow line will be the largest factor for determining snowfall totals. Another major factor will be snow to liquid ratios. Our previous system on Feb 8th was approaching 16:1 ratios. Given the amount of moisture and near freezing temps with this system...expect the snow to be wetter and heavier with a lower snow to liquid ratio...this could limit overall snow accumulations. 20+cm seems quite possible judging by latest 12/18z guidance though.

[DarkSky]

I can't wait! The last storm was 'ok' providing some good snow for me to 'offroad' in, but I'm really hoping to see what the limits of my truck are. There was an unplowed parking lot that was almost knee-deep in drifts across it, but it wasn't enough to get stuck in. Hopefully this time!

[harrisale]

Power outages certainly seems possible. Very wet, heavy snow, and gust potential up to 40kts on this system.

Thinking about 20-25cm for Guelph.

[davefootball123]

Originally Posted by harrisale

Power outages certainly seems possible. Very wet, heavy snow, and gust potential up to 40kts on this system.

Thinking about 20-25cm for Guelph.

Ya power outages could be the headline from this system. I wouldn't be surprised if snow is an 8:1 type snow...maybe 10:1...who knows...but the heavy nature of the snow will no doubt lead to at least some power outages.

[Storm Chaser]

M going to go with 25-30cm in a KW to Guelph to Milton corridor, and 20-25 for areas just south of that line such as Hamilton and Burlington. This will no doubt be a serious storm with a ton of weight on trees and powerlines. Should be an interesting event!

[davefootball123]

I don't think tree damage will be too bad. No foliage on most trees except pines. Power lines on the other hand will be stressed to large extent by the heavy snow. Power outages are likely. Accumulations are still up in the air but I imagine most areas will see at least over 15cm. Probably 25cm in areas that don't get dry slotted and stay all snow. Most accumulations will likely be in the corridor Storm Chaser pointed out. KW to Guelph up toward York and Durham Regions.

[DarkSky]

670 
 WOCN11 CWTO 250936
 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4:36 AM
 EST MONDAY 25 FEBRUARY 2013.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
       CITY OF TORONTO
       WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
       SARNIA - LAMBTON
       ELGIN
       LONDON - MIDDLESEX
       SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
       DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
       OXFORD - BRANT
       NIAGARA
       CITY OF HAMILTON
       HALTON - PEEL
       YORK - DURHAM
       HURON - PERTH
       WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
       DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
       GREY - BRUCE
       BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
       BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
       KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
       PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
       STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
       BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
       BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
       CITY OF OTTAWA
       GATINEAU
       PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
       CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
       SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
       PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
       HALIBURTON
       RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
       ALGONQUIN
       BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

      POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 ==DISCUSSION==
 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE
 NORTHEASTWARD TO PASS NEAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
 WEDNESDAY.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
 SYSTEM.  HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
 REGARDING WHICH AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY RAIN OR SNOW, AS TEMPERATURES
 WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY
 AFTERNOON AS RAIN OVER AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SARNIA TO ST
 CATHARINES.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW BY EARLY
 TUESDAY EVENING AND THE SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH
 CENTRAL ONTARIO BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND TO EASTERN ONTARIO BY
 WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
 OF LAKE ONTARIO AND INCLUDING THE GREATER TORONTO AREA, COULD SEE
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 15 CM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THIS
 SYSTEM.  HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
 PRECIPITATION PHASES, AND IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN INSTEAD, OR
 IF THE SNOW IS TOO WET AND IT MELTS WHEN IT CONTACTS THE GROUND,
 THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS.  AREAS NEAR THE
 LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE ALSO LIKELY TO HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS DUE TO
 MIXING WITH RAIN.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS CLOSELY MONITORING THE SITUATION.
 THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AS
 IT BECOMES AVAILABLE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
 STORM.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT
 CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA.

END

[davefootball123]

12z guidance has had a potentially significant shift with the rain/snow line. Now seems areas except parts of Niagara may stay all snow...thats blending the GFS, Euro, and RGEM. For what its worth...12z GFS has up to 40cm from Hamilton up toward Guelph and KW.

[DarkSky]

The Canadian Press
Published Monday, Feb. 25, 2013 9:20AM EST
Last Updated Monday, Feb. 25, 2013 9:27AM EST
Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for southwestern Ontario.
A low pressure system over Texas is forecasted to intensify and move northeastward to pass near southern Ontario Tuesday night and Wednesday. Significant amounts of precipitation are likely with this system.
There is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding which areas will see mostly rain or snow as temperatures will be close to the freezing mark.

Read more: http://london.ctvnews.ca/another-sno...#ixzz2LxagCWNd