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  #11  
Old 04-08-2011, 03:07 AM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

from buffalo

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE CREST OF THE H5 RIDGE WILL BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WHILE A WELL DEFINED VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PLACE OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND SEASONABLY MILD AIR
AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 14C.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL COUPLE WITH 100M HGT FALLS
AND A 100KT H25 JET TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT TO ENHANCE
ANY CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN EQUALLY BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS
OF THE SPRINGTIME SYSTEM AND BY MCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS COULD MAKE FOR SOME INTERESTING WEATHER ON MONDAY AS SOME
`FRISKY` THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE MAKING. WILL BE USING HIGH
LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SURROUNDING WFO`S. STY TUNED...
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  #12  
Old 04-08-2011, 04:59 PM
benjaminblizzard benjaminblizzard is offline
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

Got my fingers and toes crossed for this.
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  #13  
Old 04-08-2011, 05:01 PM
benjaminblizzard benjaminblizzard is offline
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080848
SPC AC 080848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2011

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MODELS MOVE THIS
FEATURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MOIST AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. ON TUESDAY/DAY
5...THE MODELS MOVE A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SWRN
STATES WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
BY WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN
PLAINS ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE THREAT SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER...LOOKS
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SRN PLAINS BECAUSE THE
INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WORKS OUT...THEN A SEVERE THREAT
COULD EXIST ON THURSDAY/DAY 7 AND FRIDAY/DAY 8 IN THE ARKLATEX AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. ATTM...NO AREAS WILL BE OUTLOOKED ACROSS THE CONUS
MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE AND
THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE MID-WEEK.
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  #14  
Old 04-09-2011, 01:07 AM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

I am still confident that we will see some thunderstorms. MLCAPE still looks to be AOA 1000j/kg. There will be plenty of moisture and daytime heating considering we will be 10+ degrees above normal. Dewpoints will be in the mid teens as well.
Just wanted to post a little something that the latest 0z CMC shows.
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  #15  
Old 04-09-2011, 05:22 PM
benjaminblizzard benjaminblizzard is offline
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

It was much warmer today in North York than expected - they called for 12 degrees and it's 5:30 pm and it's still 15C. The sun has been shining allllllll day It looks like we might actually get some action tomorrow!
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  #16  
Old 04-09-2011, 05:44 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

from buffalo

Quote:
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
436 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION ON MONDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
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  #17  
Old 04-09-2011, 07:00 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

Latest from SPC:

Quote:
SPC AC 091733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2011

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF WISCONSIN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO NERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG SWLY
JET ON THE ERN FRINGE.

THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR A WIDESPREAD AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD.

...UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES -- APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WITH TIME. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT FORCING ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT -- AND INVOF THE SURFACE LOW/WRM FRONT ACROSS
SERN MN/ERN IA/SRN WI -- SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INITIATE BY 20-22Z.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 80-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL
PROVIDE SHEAR VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS -- AND THUS STORMS WILL
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY INCREASE AND SPREAD QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...FUELED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY. GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO SRN WI/NRN
IL...NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
-- WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS
STORMS LIKELY BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED WITH TIME.

MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO
INTO NERN TX. WHILE TORNADO THREAT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STORMS WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT -- BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...WHERE STRONGEST FORCING
-- AND THUS GREATEST CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION -- IS FORECAST.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
WHILE WEAKER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN NY/WRN
PA...AFTERNOON CONVECTION CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE AND CROSSING SRN
ONTARIO MAY CROSS THE LAKES AND BRING A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL TO THIS REGION. ANY THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.
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  #18  
Old 04-09-2011, 07:12 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

check www.southernontarioweather.ca outlooks for my write up
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  #19  
Old 04-09-2011, 07:49 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

Models look in pretty good agreement of the storms passing through the Golden Horshoe between 9am and noon. Hopefully its before 9 or after 245... I dont want to be in school if there is anything good.... Hmm mabye they will happen during my lunch.
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  #20  
Old 04-10-2011, 09:30 AM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

Severe storm warning for ontario

Quote:
Warnings
Goderich - Bluewater - Southern Huron County
9:28 AM EDT Sunday 10 April 2011
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Goderich - Bluewater - Southern Huron County issued

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.


Wingham - Blyth - Northern Huron County
9:28 AM EDT Sunday 10 April 2011
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Wingham - Blyth - Northern Huron County issued

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.
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