Aug 20/21

[obwan]

Things look possible for tonight and tomorrow. heres wahta Buffalo says.

THE `FLY IN THE OINTMENT` IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FIRING UP AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUT A LID ON
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WILL JUST INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR AREAS BORDERING THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO ENTER THE WESTERN
THRESHOLD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH POPS CLIMBING TO
THE LOWER LIKELY RANGE EARLY IN THE MORNING. LOOKING AT A SHOWERY
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERY START TO THE DAY. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE EARLIER ONSET OF PRECIP. NAM DEVELOPS A 35-40KT 850MB JET
PRECEDING THE FRONT AND UPPER 250MB WINDS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN TWO
115KT+ SPEED MAXIMA WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE DEEP LIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS...ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE...COULD BRING A
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP
AND COLD ALSO OFFER HEAVY RAINS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5 INCH. THE FRONT AND PRECIP SHOULD BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST AND
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON

[Derecho]

Has me all excited, but we're hosting our biggest bbq event of the summer today so everyone is running around in a panic. Just checked the 00z WRF-NMM, it indicates a line of rain and thunderstorms coming through SON around 22-00z (6-8pm) then it has heavy rain continuing right through until tomorrow morning.

Guess I'll be playing resident weather specialist today for the lot of them. I'll be like those Accuweather services (who are contracted to monitor important outdoor events, railways, etc)

[Smokin Joe]

Barrie - Collingwood - Hillsdale
10:46 AM EDT Saturday 20 August 2011
Severe thunderstorm watch for
Barrie - Collingwood - Hillsdale issued

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this morning and this afternoon.

This is an alert to the potential development of severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds or heavy rainfall..Monitor weather conditions and listen for updated bulletins.

A cold front from Algonquin Park to Tobermory this morning will move slowly to the south today. A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed along this front. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe with wind gusts to 90 km/h, hail to 2 cm in diameter and torrential downpours.

[stormy kid]

ya cool loook now /... A cold front from Petawawa to Goderich this afternoon will move slowly to the south this evening. Two areas of showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of this front. One area is over lower Michigan approaching Southwestern Ontario and the other is over parts of Eastern Ontario. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe with wind gusts to 90 km/h, hail to 2 cm in diameter and torrential downpours.

[benjaminblizzard]

Geeze, look at the warnings and watches. Fingers crossed for a good show!

[stormy kid]

oh ya i got a rainfall warning ans severe thunderstorm watch wooooot!!!!

[Itchy]

Storm is lining out , nice portion headed right for me ..... Noticed Tom is out chasing it, the area he's on is what's going my way

The area around and north of chatam kent region looks to be the sweet spot at the moment

[davefootball123]

Anything good in your area Itchy?

[Reffik]

It's moving so slow...long evening ahead.

[Itchy]

yea saw a nice shelf nothing amazing though...... No hail in my area but lots of rain.... Seemed to fall apart as it hit town