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Old 05-24-2012, 10:50 PM
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Default sunday may 27th looking promising

From KBUF. These guys tend to be more realistic than GFS and ECMWF, and also have the experience of working with great lakes influence. This may prove to be "the" weekend of the summer for the Great lakes region.

Quote:
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
UNSETTLED. A STRONG/HOT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH A BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD.
WITH PLENTY OF WARMTH AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...THIS WILL PLACE
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN A FAVORABLE RING OF FIRE LOCATION FOR MCS
ACTIVITY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL
SUGGEST ONE OR MORE MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN LAKES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROLLING DOWN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
INTO UPSTATE NY. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HINGE ON
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...SO AT THIS TIME RANGE WILL SIMPLY GO
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL
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There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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  #2  
Old 05-26-2012, 11:01 PM
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Default Re: sunday may 27th looking promising

I have my Day 2 and 3 outlooks on my site. Am somewhat torn for tomorrow. MCS seems possible in the morning hours with little to no severe risk...maybe some heavy rain. Afternoon risk is tricky. Nam really scaled back on risk with very limited risk. If models bounce back tonight I will add slight risk for areas south of own sound to just north of kitchener but im not sure yet. Anyway I also have mondays write up

www.southernontariochasing.ca/sospc.html
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Old 05-27-2012, 11:18 AM
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Default Re: sunday may 27th looking promising

Interesting junk storm heading my way, but the cell behind it in the states still interests me
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Old 05-27-2012, 02:10 PM
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Default Re: sunday may 27th looking promising

There was a neat short lived lp(relatively) cell between the cores that made a neat shelf with some rotation evident visually and weakly on radar
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Old 05-27-2012, 04:13 PM
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Default Re: sunday may 27th looking promising

What looked to be a large - but not overly strong - line of storms coming towards Niagara took a sharp dip south and is now traveling across Ohio Oh well, there's always tomorrow!
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Old 05-27-2012, 06:41 PM
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Default Re: sunday may 27th looking promising

Code:
207 
ACCN10 CWTO 272015
FORECAST OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4:15 PM EDT SUNDAY 27 MAY 2012.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 4.00 AM MONDAY.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECAST OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN REGIONS EXTENDING FROM LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN
BAY TO LAKE ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H AND 2 CM HAIL ARE THE
MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVING LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 20 MM ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THE ALGOMA-NICKEL BELT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH 1 TO 2 CM HAIL POSSIBLE.

MONDAY..SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS A WIDE AREA FROM
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PROVINCE AND
SOUTH TO THE ALGOMA-NICKEL BELT INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE FROM
NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARDS INTO AREAS EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY AND
THE OTTAWA VALLEY. STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
ALL BE ISSUES.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NICKEL
BELT ACROSS THE ALGONQUIN REGION INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY LATER IN
THE DAY.
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Old 05-27-2012, 07:13 PM
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Default Re: sunday may 27th looking promising

Nothing is going to happen tonight, its done. Nothing supports storm development later on.
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Old 05-27-2012, 09:10 PM
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Default Re: sunday may 27th looking promising

MCS that was in Northern Wisconsin at 1am this morning and then traveled through SWON early afternoon is now approaching the Washington DC and Philadelphia PA
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Old 05-27-2012, 11:04 PM
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Default Re: sunday may 27th looking promising

wonder if those storms over lake superior will reach our area early tomorrow morning????
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Old 05-27-2012, 11:48 PM
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Default Re: sunday may 27th looking promising

Well now for Monday, EC has cleared their previous forecast from the board (thunderstorms, possibly severe) and are now predicting completely sunny and 32C.

Man.. it's forecasts like this that just fuel my fire.
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Last edited by DarkSky; 05-28-2012 at 12:34 AM.
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