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2010 Storms of 2009 - specific weather events posted by date

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  #1  
Old 07-21-2010, 01:41 PM
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post anything about the possible severe weather this saturday here...
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Old 07-21-2010, 02:31 PM
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Default Re: Saturday

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX...IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD A
MOIST/UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE COULD DEVELOP IF AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES AS MODELS SUGGEST.
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Old 07-21-2010, 03:57 PM
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Default Re: Saturday

Could be huge.
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Old 07-22-2010, 02:47 PM
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Default Re: Saturday

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID MS VALLEY...

...MID MS VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES HAVE DEVELOPED REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
STRONG SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY3 PERIOD. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO LOWER MI BY 25/00Z...WHILE THE NAM HAS THE TROUGH
AXIS ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT BY THE GFS HAS THE
TROUGH ALONG THE ON/NY BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE TROUGH FROM THE
U.P. OF MI INTO NERN IA. AT THE SURFACE...THE GFS ALLOWS A WELL
DEFINED SFC LOW TO LIFT INTO NWRN QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS SRN ON INTO NWRN OH AT 00Z...THE NAM/S FRONTAL POSITION
EXTENDS FROM NERN WI...SWWD INTO NRN MO.

GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A
FAVORABLY SHEARED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
SURGING COLD FRONT. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF WOULD SEEM TO
SUPPORT A SOLUTION BETWEEN THE TWO. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
ENSURE THAT DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
PROLONGED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.


Ok so what I'm getting is that it's another big maybe with the timing..........one way or another is it safe to assume that we are looking at either late afternoon to like 8 or 9 pm for the main event with some less widespread action ahead of the main event.

Been getting burned alot on the timing of the big episodes.....anyone who can translate this into some simpler terms for me if i'm off on my interpretation would be greatly appreciated........
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Old 07-22-2010, 03:35 PM
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Default Re: Saturday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokin Joe View Post

Ok so what I'm getting is that it's another big maybe with the timing..........one way or another is it safe to assume that we are looking at either late afternoon to like 8 or 9 pm for the main event with some less widespread action ahead of the main event.

Been getting burned alot on the timing of the big episodes.....anyone who can translate this into some simpler terms for me if i'm off on my interpretation would be greatly appreciated........
Basically an area of low pressure will progress into Quebec with a cold front sloping down into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region for Saturday. There should be a mid-morning MCS with a warm boundary in behind it that should destabilize the atmo after it passes then favourable conditions for severe weather will develop and enhance behind it.

The SPC expects daytime heating to be so intense, it could provide enough energy to continue thunderstorm activity well into the night. I think this will be down in the Mississippi Valley.

It sounds like the SPC expects the cold front to penetrate SRN ON by 8-9pm.
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Last edited by Derecho; 07-22-2010 at 05:13 PM.
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  #6  
Old 07-23-2010, 11:02 PM
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Default Re: Saturday

Will be dropping the severe thunderstorm watch shortly, as activity slides south of the border.Focus will then be on very impressive complex developing over eastern South Dakota late thisevening. Adequate instability across northern Iowa into central Wisconsin should allow for eastwardpropagation, and suspect we will be dealing with this complex during the late morning/earlyafternoon hours of Saturday.
I dont want this> WTH Honestly. There goes afrernoon potenail LOL but i guess if it holds itself mabye it will be ok
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Old 07-24-2010, 06:56 AM
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Default Re: Saturday

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
441 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-250845-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-
441 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY...PRIMARILY FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE HEAVY TODAY WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION THIS MORNING WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH...SHIFTING TO EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE A RESULT OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY WILL ACT TO
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
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  #8  
Old 07-24-2010, 12:47 PM
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Default Re: Saturday

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010



...IL/IND/LWR MI TO LWR GRT LKS/NERN STATES TODAY/TONIGHT...
STRONG DESTABILIZATION...WITH SBCAPE TO 3000 J/KG...SHOULD OCCUR
TODAY ALONG SRN AND ERN FRINGE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
...I.E. FROM NRN/CNTRL IL ENE INTO SRN LWR MI...OH...AND WRN
PA/NY.THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF RESIDUAL STORMS AND/OR
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ACTIVITY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

SEASONABLY STRONG...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WIND PROFILES
...WITH 40-50 KT 700-500 MB FLOW ON S SIDE OF UPR TROUGH...SHOULD
SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH DMGG WIND THE
MAIN SVR THREAT. A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR...MOST LIKELY
OVER THE LWR GRT LKS...WHERE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS APT TO BE
GREATEST. ALTHOUGH THE SVR THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH LATE EVE...A MORE LIMITED WIND DMG THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO
EARLY SUN IN PA/NY AS APPROACHING UPR TROUGH ENHANCES LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT.
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  #9  
Old 07-24-2010, 04:38 PM
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Default Re: Saturday

Supercell in NY
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  #10  
Old 07-24-2010, 06:27 PM
Smokin Joe Smokin Joe is offline
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Default Saturday

Here is the supercell that formed just west of Cleveland from our side of lake Erie near port glascow. Any storms coming here this way still this evening or is that it for hopes of storms?
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