Thursday, August 16th Threat

[Storm Chaser]

It appears likely thursday will be a day of interest for all of S ON. An impressive low will track over Northern Ontario with a strong cold front dipping across the region Thursday. Sufficient cape and shear along with the good forcing should allow for thunderstorms to develop in MI during the afternoon and track through Ontario in the evening.

[harrisale]

Was about to create this thread. Certainly a day to look out for, possibly some very strong shear.

Although some models are indicating the best action may remain to the west over Michigan, we will see in the coming days.

[harrisale]

Day 3 Probabilistic:

[Storm Chaser]

Latest Nam is a bit better bringing in sufficent CAPE to sustain a line of storms and some better shear. Precip shows what could be a possible squall line in the evening hours.

[harrisale]

Latest model runs still looking iffy for severe in Ontario. Possibility of some strong storms coming off Huron but best EHI still remains over Michigan and to the southwest of us.

Best hope I think is for a clear morning and afternoon to really heat things up.

SPC Day 2 Outlook:

[Storm Chaser]

the NMM hi res model shows all of Southern Ontario getting destroyed tomorrow, as well as the NAM which shows a massive squall line moving through. Cape values are not high, but do not need to be to support linear storms. I personally disagree with SPC. They have been way off lately, and dont even have us in the thunderline today even though I think some areas will see some strong storms today. They are already forming with big cells up over the Bruce Penninsula.

[harrisale]

Originally Posted by Storm Chaser

the NMM hi res model shows all of Southern Ontario getting destroyed tomorrow, as well as the NAM which shows a massive squall line moving through. Cape values are not high, but do not need to be to support linear storms. I personally disagree with SPC. They have been way off lately, and dont even have us in the thunderline today even though I think some areas will see some strong storms today. They are already forming with big cells up over the Bruce Penninsula.

Cool, thanks for the input. I've learned a lot this summer, thanks in part to this forum

I will definitely be out chasing tomorrow, as it could be my last opportunity of the summer since I'll be out of town the next two weeks.

Noticed those storms popping as I was walking between buildings a few minutes ago, lots of nice congestus forming up.

Also I find it funny that we both post on lunch hour haha.

[Storm Chaser]

haha im only 16 i worked a half day landscaping today same as tomorrow, not a full time job. Good luck chasing tomorrow, I will probably go out with my dad too.

[Storm Chaser]

The cell NW of Embro has my attention as well as the stuff forming north of it. Both of us are in prime positions!

[davefootball123]

Storms today are mainly lake breeze based. Theres about 1000j/kg of CAPE right now which will be favourable for more storms to form. These will be pulse type storms with no real forcing and nothing sustaining them so heavy rain will be the main threat. A quick wet downburst may be possible as the strongest storms rain out.