August 24 -SW ON

[Smokin Joe]

Current Day 3 from SPC

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF LOWER MI...FAR NRN
IL AND IND...AND NWRN OH...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND 70+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING WRN NEW ENGLAND BY THU
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MI AND NRN
IL DURING THE DAY...AND INTO NRN IND AND OH OVERNIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE WRN AND CNTRL
STATES...WITH UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. TO THE E...A
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN
STATES...ALLOWING A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND POSSIBLY APPROACH THE FL STRAITS BY THE END OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD.


...NRN IL...MUCH OF LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NWRN OH...
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...DESPITE EFFECTS OF EARLY CONVECTION THANKS TO A CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR BY SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. BY
MIDDAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN
WI INTO NRN MI...INTENSIFYING WITH TIME. PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENTLY LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL TEND TO FAVOR
SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST INITIALLY...BUT SOME MORPHOLOGY INTO LINE
SEGMENTS OR BOWS MAY OCCUR WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES E.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BOTH BE LIKELY.

Season may end with a flurry now after all the waiting....i'll pass on the F3's through populated areas, but i'll take one in a field somewhere.....

[davefootball123]

Thanks for that post Smokin Joe. I will do my Day 3 forecast tonight aroun 8pm and I will post what I think later.

[-Strike-]

Originally Posted by Smokin Joe

i'll pass on the F3's through populated areas, but i'll take one in a field somewhere.....

I agree. Don't like to see that in towns or cities, let alone the downtown core. I'd gladly take one out in a field as you said.

[Smokin Joe]

Giddy up! Latest Day 2 is out from SPC.....looking better every update.......slight risk area moved further east to include much of southern ontario............oh man i hope it pans out i'm chasing whatever happens tomorrow, don't know how many more chances we'll get

...GREAT LAKES THROUGH OH VALLEY AND PORTION OF MID MS VALLEY...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES
INCLUDING LOWER MI EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INITIAL
PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE. STRENGTHENING WSWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSPORT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NOW
RESIDING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND PLAINS NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY REGION. MORNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY
SHIFT EWD WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE UPSTREAM DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL MOIST AXIS FROM MI SWWD THROUGH OH AND MID MS VALLEY
AREAS. PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD ABOVE THE MOIST
AXIS WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD RESULT IN A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY WITH 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE
FROM MI SWWD THROUGH OH...IND...IL AND MO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP INITIALLY WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTAL FORCING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. SWRN EXTENT OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO STRONGER CAP
AND WEAKER FORCING. MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH BASE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH WEAKER SHEAR WITH
SRN EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY FROM NRN PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY INTO LOWER MI.

[Itchy]

Oddest thing my apartment just shook for about a minutes....I'm on the top so I get the biggest wobbles I have felt it sway before but never like this my monitor wobbled at its worst ..... what's up?

[Smokin Joe]

It's a prelude to tomorrow's storms!!!

[Smokin Joe]

just heard from someone in T.O. they shook too.....you aren't crazy itchy

[Itchy]

Now if I can only deal with these voices...... I just read that virginia dc had a 5.8

[Smokin Joe]

Originally Posted by Itchy

Now if I can only deal with these voices...... I just read that virginia dc had a 5.8

lol as long as they're not telling you to light stuff on fire, voices are ok ......i have never felt a tremor for all of the times they've happened....i miss everything

[Anspray]

I'm predicting the storms develop a line south of Lake Erie all state side. IMO