July 19th 2013, the big day!

[tice23]

Hey everyone, I'm sure many of us are just waiting for today to unfold. What's on the plate?

well take a look at the SPC, We have high probabilities for severe weather for all of southern ontario, and some northern, Tornado probabilities in the 5% range, wind probabilities 30% and hail 15%. There is a long squal line already getting organized and it should sustain itself all day if their numbers don't lie.

Why am I so excited and sound like a sports caster? Well the last time i remember numbers like this was probably close to the 2009 outbreak, but i don't remember if certain regions hit the 10% level with the significant tornado parameter, certainly dont see a blanket of southern Ontario like this very often.

Watches are already up for portions of ontario for severe thunderstorms.

Do you think a tornado watch will be issued? or if it should?
Any guesses as to when and where this system will hit hardest?
Who's going out to snap some pictures today?

Maps:

Here are the archived SPC maps for the day. the NWS responds very quickly with helpful info.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/out...0719_1200.html

[Mesocyclone97]

Tice, this definitely does look like the Outbreak of 2009, possibly even worse. We have something big in store, at least I hope. During that outbreak, Tornadic circulation passed within a few hundred yards of my home, so definitely excited for today (so long as my house isn't damaged :P ).

[tice23]

Interesting observation i just had. im looking at the cells that are forming along the cold front: they are traveling at very quick speeds, close to 70km/h or more in some cases. the angle of the front should make it an interesting north west to south east chase since chasing a 70km/h storm without breaking all the rules is pretty tough if you cant travel parallel to it. The challenge becomes when and where to set up....

I'm thinking i'll start west of collingwood in the bruce-grey area, then zig zag south east as best i can.

[WayfaringStranger]

First warning of the day

Manitoulin Island
10:13 AM EDT Friday 19 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Manitoulin Island continued

At 10:00 EDT, meteorologists are tracking a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and heavy downpours. There is also the risk for a tornado.

Communities in the path include: Killarnery, Britt and Tobermory.

[Thunderbolt]

I was very excited for this squall line but then or course....




EC just issued a warning for North Bay - West Nipissing

[WayfaringStranger]

Warning just issued for: Bayfield Inlet - Dunchurch South River - Burk's Falls - Town of Parry Sound - Rosseau - Killbear Park - Bruce Peninsula - Sauble Beach - Tobermory

At 10:00 EDT, meteorologists are tracking a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and heavy downpours. There is also the risk for a tornado.

[Thunderbolt]

Tornado watch issued in eastern Ontario

EDIT: Tornado warning issued for West Nipissing - French River and Bayfield Inlet - Dunchurch

[tice23]

now im torn, the excitement is starting north, but thres so much potential in the south, north is more difficult to chase but looks to be opening up sooner....darn.

[SlideShowBob]

Tornado watch for Barrie...hasn't been updated on website, but the local forecast page stated it

[SlideShowBob]

this is certainly going to be an active day. Stay safe everyone!