July 13, 2016

[Stormydude]

SPC's risk for Tuesday is getting real close to us. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html At the rate it's going, I suspect it'll track into Southern Ontario for Wednesday, probably impacting Eastern Ontario hardest. Also, low 30s for temperatures and a lot of sun and heat the days before. Any thoughts? Anyone have models? Obviously it's a bit soon to tell what will happen, but we can hope, right? This month already seems more active than June ever was.

Also, nobody really starts many threads anymore. This place was really active a few years ago. Have we lost hope in a good storm year so soon?

[DarkSky]

Originally Posted by Stormydude

SPC's risk for Tuesday is getting real close to us. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html At the rate it's going, I suspect it'll track into Southern Ontario for Wednesday, probably impacting Eastern Ontario hardest. Also, low 30s for temperatures and a lot of sun and heat the days before. Any thoughts? Anyone have models? Obviously it's a bit soon to tell what will happen, but we can hope, right? This month already seems more active than June ever was.

We've had quite a bit of warm (downright hot) weather the last couple weeks. The problem is, there's been nothing to trigger it into a storm. It's just been sitting around quite lazy and content.

Also, nobody really starts many threads anymore. This place was really active a few years ago. Have we lost hope in a good storm year so soon?

Ya... nothing slows down storm talk more than a big lack of storms.

I can probably say now, that this is *THE* slowest season of the year I've witnessed since 'getting in' to storms around '98.

It used to be pretty regular: in spring the tstorms would start up, as the weather got hotter the summer would be spread out with regular and strong tstorms, then slow down towards Fall.

The last handful of years, we've had little rain in the summer, grass is yellow and brittle (it just cracks under your feet when you walk on it), and the storms have been far and few between.

All part of the cycle I guess.

Things will pick up when Mother Nature gives us something to talk about

[Stormydude]

So it looks like two possible days with severe potential. Tomorrow and Thursday. SPC only has us in a marginal risk, but that's their new way of saying slight risk nowadays, and same thing for Thursday..sort of. The risk is there but only along Lake Erie. There'll likely be big changes by tomorrow, so let's hope they're good changes. I'm really confused about timing. EC's forecast for KW is afternoon and evening, but TWN is evening and overnight. But I think TWN will change it tomorrow to an afternoon threat in addition to evening and overnight. They tend to do that, and plus EC's forecasts in my experience have been more accurate.

Anyone have model data on lift and sheer available, as well as future radars?