Large Storm Next Week Oct 19-21

[Derecho]

Environment Canada has released a special weather statement for a forthcoming storm strong low pressure system set to cross Southern Ontario Wednesday. She looks to be a major rain and wind maker and perhaps even a few flakes!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:21 PM EDT
MONDAY 17 OCTOBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF TORONTO
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
=NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= NIAGARA
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
=NEW= HALTON - PEEL
=NEW= HURON - PERTH
=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
=NEW= GREY - BRUCE.

..HEAVY RAIN ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY..

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
TRACK TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WHILE GRADUALLY SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND APPROACHES THE REGIONS.

AT THIS TIME TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25 MM ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
EVENT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 40 MM POSSIBLE. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND
ENVIRONMENT CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND
WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED IF THE SITUATION WARRANTS. THE RAINFALL
WARNING CRITERIA IS 50 MM OR MORE IN 24 HOURS. THIS SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT MAY BE EXTENDED TO EASTERN REGIONS AS MORE INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS AS
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OR EXTENDED.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT
CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA

END

[Derecho]

The NAM is showing some pretty wicked winds Wednesday night. The GFS is not in agreement with the wind field, it's showing much less impressive winds. The NAM & GFS are showing precipitation rates as high as 2-3" especially across SEMI into extreme SWON, with rates as high as 2" across much of Southern Ontario. TWN is forecasting as much as 50mm of rain for Waterloo, and Environment Canada is calling for up to 40mm. Could be a flooding event for some areas.

GFS has a large area of 55mph winds on the north and northwest side of the low as it approaches at the 850mb level.



It's just too bad it's not December, or else this would be a major snowstorm! Perfect rare setup!

[Derecho]

Solid storm so far in SEMI and across SWON. I'm at 14mm in KW, peas and carrots to the 60-70mm so far southwest of here.

Several 80kmh gusts being recorded in Hamilton so far, and power out in many areas of Southern Ontario, especially Norfolk County with 3,000 customers in the dark.

Hopefully the rain will pick up over night for us east of London/Kitchener/Barrie. If this was December, sure fire blizzard for many areas with probably at least a foot of snow in many areas. So close!

[Smokin Joe]

I was in the north end of Toronto leaving around 10pm last night and I was walking through the parking lot with probably 55-65k sustained wind and you could see the sheets of rain and thought the same.....if that was snow I wouldn't even attempt the drive home.....would have been suicidal

[Derecho]

Decent event and somewhat overachieving, especially in Hamilton!

UPDATED WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 11:35 AM EDT THURSDAY 20 OCTOBER 2011.

-------------------------------------------------------------
==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GAVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS TO
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. BELOW ARE SOME UNOFFICIAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS AS OF 11 AM TODAY.
-------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION RAINFALL AMOUNT (MM)

HAMILTON MOUNTAIN 78.1
HAMILTON AIRPORT 68.4
WINDSOR 55.0
HARROW 54.0
WIARTON 51.8
WATERLOO UNIVERSITY 51.8
APPLETON (W OF OTTAWA) 50.0
TORONTO PEARSON 48.4
WATERLOO-WELLINGTON 45.6
BARRIE 44.0
ELORA 43.5
SHANTY BAY (E OF BARRIE) 43.0
THORNBURY (NW OF COLLINGWOOD) 41.2
BALACLAVA (E OF OWEN SOUND) 40.5
HANOVER 39.6
TAPLEY (SW OF PETERBOROUGH) 35.9
DRUMMOND (SE OF PETERBOROUGH) 35.4
GODERICH 35.3
TORONTO ISLAND 35.1
MOUNT FOREST 34.7
MARKHAM 31.4
COLDWATER 31.0
KALADAR 30.6
TORONTO DOWNTOWN 29.9
TORONTO DOWNSVIEW 29.6


LOCATION MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (KM/H)

TORONTO ISLAND 63 GUSTING TO 78 (9:30PM)
HAMILTON 61 GUSTING TO 78 (8:30PM)
LONDON 56 GUSTING TO 72 (9:30PM)
BURLINGTON 54 GUSTING TO 70 (1:00AM)

THIS WEATHER SUMMARY CONTAINS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION
AND MAY NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL OR FINAL REPORT.

END/OSPC

[Derecho]

Originally Posted by Smokin Joe

I was in the north end of Toronto leaving around 10pm last night and I was walking through the parking lot with probably 55-65k sustained wind and you could see the sheets of rain and thought the same.....if that was snow I wouldn't even attempt the drive home.....would have been suicidal

Oh man I know it had all the fixings of a major winter storm. Were we on a 10:1 ratio then probably at least 52cm of snow would have fallen in Waterloo.

We had a few solid wind gusts in the range of 55-60kmh. Sustained kept around 30-40kmh for most of the night. There were several thunderclaps overnight.

Good storm!

[DarkSky]

Here in ST. Kitts we had some gusty winds, moderate rain that lasted the evening, but NOTHING like we were warned about. I was expecting a steady heavy pouring. It was basically your average autumn rainfall type day.

[Derecho]

Originally Posted by DarkSky

Here in ST. Kitts we had some gusty winds, moderate rain that lasted the evening, but NOTHING like we were warned about. I was expecting a steady heavy pouring. It was basically your average autumn rainfall type day.

Totals largely went off as forecast, but I was expecting more of us to end up under the deformation band. It only skirted KW in the evening and remained over SWON and Michigan for majority of the event. The LLJ is what gave liquid to most of us in scattered lines and individual thunder cells through the overnight. Hence why the event totals are so random. KW still received a solid 10-15mm from the deformation band, but I doubt anywhere east and northeast of here received even 5-10mm from it.

Also, those model maps I posted were direct copies of the links and not saved images. So, they've since updated and will continue to update.