Wednesday Night Threat

[Storm Chaser]

Tomorrow night requires some attention. SREF has some nice sig tornado probs in S ON from 2am to about 9am, being in the golden horshoe around 5am. Should be interesting to see what happens.

[Storm Chaser]

SPC has expanded the slight risk greatly.

[davefootball123]

http://www.southernontariochasing.ca...veoutlook.html

My outlook

[harrisale]

Early morning chase anyone? Sunrise storms could be quite the sight.

[qcstorm]

Latest NAM looking quite impressive. It looks like a derecho event may be possible over much of southern ontario early Thursday morning.

[Storm Chaser]

Supercells with possible tornadoes may be a threat across Southern Ontario in the overnight hours.

[qcstorm]

Anything looks possible, but if a bowing line does form, it would occur just north of lake Erie over southern portion of southwestern Ontario and move east though New England possibly reaching the Atlantic ocean. Anywhere else in southern Ontario, especially near and north of lake Erie looks to be more cluster-like storms.

[davefootball123]

Originally Posted by qcstorm

Anything looks possible, but if a bowing line does form, it would occur just north of lake Erie over southern portion of southwestern Ontario and move east though New England possibly reaching the Atlantic ocean. Anywhere else in southern Ontario, especially near and north of lake Erie looks to be more cluster-like storms.

Thanks for your thoughts...while I agree partially, there is 1 thing that I don't agree with...the potential bow being along the Lake Erie shore...Latest NAM guidance has the best severe weather threat from Southern Wisconsin into Central Lower Michigan along and north of M69....roughly along the warm front and along the nose of the warm air advection. Severe winds may be possible anywhere in Southwestern and parts of South Central Ontario due to the 40-50kt 0-6km vertical shear and 500mb winds around 50-60kts out the the west. QLCS tornadoes may also be possible given the extreme helecity values and sig tor parameters. I will make a more pinpoint forecast when High Res solutions come into play. Stay updated over at my website www.southernontariochasing.ca/sows.html
I will be posting updates there and my Day 1 and 2 convective outlooks should be up for Tomorrow and Thursday around 8-9am.


EDIT: Hmm 0Z NAM has quite the MCS riding along the warm front/instability gradient from Lake Huron toward Hamilton extending south to the Lake Erie Shore. Also has more storms firing in the afternoon along the cold front.

[Storm Chaser]

Agree totally with you Dave.

[Itchy]

Doesn't matter how late I will chase, was stuck helping someone move Sunday evening couldn't chase the near stationary tornado warned storm north of me so I'm pretty ....agitated.....to say the least lately.....


Doesn't matter what time of day or night it is if it's chase worthy and I'm not stuck with errands or work I can't shake off I'll be on that storm faster than the radar can get the next update in!