Sunday November 17, 2013

[SlideShowBob]

I was just looking at the SPC site and I noticed that Southern Ontario seems to be in the "slight" category, again.

I know that I might be only hoping, but a good storm would be a great way to end the season.

Wishful thinking?

Cheers!

[DarkSky]

I was just reading about Sunday. Looks like it's supposed to very windy, with severe storm potential:

[Derecho]

Originally Posted by DarkSky

I was just reading about Sunday. Looks like it's supposed to very windy, with severe storm potential:

About sums it up

[DarkSky]

Probability has become stronger since last post.

[DarkSky]

384 
 WOCN11 CWTO 162040
 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
 UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
 AT 3:40 PM EST SATURDAY 16 NOVEMBER 2013.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
       CITY OF TORONTO
       WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
       SARNIA - LAMBTON
       ELGIN
       LONDON - MIDDLESEX
       SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
       DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
       OXFORD - BRANT
       NIAGARA
       CITY OF HAMILTON
       HALTON - PEEL
       YORK - DURHAM
       HURON - PERTH
       WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
       DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
       GREY - BRUCE
       BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
       BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
       KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
       PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
       STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
       BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
       BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
       CITY OF OTTAWA
       GATINEAU
       PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
       CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
       SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
       PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
       HALIBURTON
       RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
       ALGONQUIN
       BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS
 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


---------------------------------------------------------------------
 ==DISCUSSION==
 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
 GREAT LAKES AND WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A SIGNIFICANT FALL STORM
 AS IT HEADS TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR LATER ON SUNDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
 COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY
 AFTERNOON THEN BLAST EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONS SUNDAY
 NIGHT.

IN ADVANCE OF THIS FALL STORM, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
 IN MILD AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. HENCE FAIR WEATHER UNDER
 VARIOUS BLENDS OF SUN AND CLOUD ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
 EXPECTED TODAY. ON SUNDAY, STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP
 TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE MID TEENS, WITH A FEW LOCALES SUCH
 AS NIAGARA AND WINDSOR POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. SHOWERS
 ARE LIKELY SUNDAY, WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING A TOTAL OF 15 TO 25 MM
 THANKS TO TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN-FREE PERIODS OF A COUPLE HOURS AS
 WELL.

VERY STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HERALD THE
 ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATE ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
 FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
 MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR
 SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
 MONDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FROM THE ARCTIC EXPECTED TO BLAST IN FROM
 THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
 POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS BY TUESDAY IN THE SNOW BELT REGIONS TO THE
 SOUTHEAST OF LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY AS WINTER ROARS IN WITH A
 VENGEANCE.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION  CLOSELY.


THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS AS
 WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OR EXTENDED.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT
 CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA


END

[obwan]

Funny how E.C. has stuck with the special weather statement all day but NWS out of Buf has gone from a hazardous weather outlook(yesterday) to a watch this morning, to a wind warning this afternoon for tomorrows storm they predict high winds from 5pm sun to 1pm mon..
Wonder if this will pan out or if Darkskys first drawing will come true.
I always thought the Storm Prediction center just didn't want to step on EC's toes with the graphics but now I think they are just giving accurate predicitions.

[DarkSky]

An EC staffer (I won't mention his/her name as I'm quoting below from a mailing list) said this:

We will be issuing wind warnings with the early morning forecasts for most of Srn Ontario (Bayfield inlet to Kingston and SW), as well as Nern Ontario from Montreal River to Sudbury and S. This “almost bomb” is screaming high winds, thunderstorms or not.

If the dynamically forced squall line doe include a good line of thunderstorms, this may be an uncommon case of having a severe thunderstorm watch/warning and a post-thunderstorm-cold front wind warning in effect at the same time.

I’m expecting a lot of wind gust reports of 100-110 km/h with maybe a few higher ones in favoured funneling areas like Port Colborne, Sault Ste Marie Airport (NWLY storms), Dundalk Highlands, Baden Hill, Point Petre. Too bad WQP (Point Petre) is missing.

Batten down your hatches.

[SlideShowBob]

SPC at this moment is talking about a tornado outbreak south of the border later today. This could be an interesting Sunday.

[Anspray]

This is looking to be pretty significant...possibly one of the biggest chances of severe weather in years.

[DarkSky]

We should have some strong winds today here on the 'peninsula' (it's not really a peninsula here in Niagara)

776 
 WWCN11 CWTO 171550
 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
 ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
 AT 10:50 AM EST SUNDAY 17 NOVEMBER 2013.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

WIND WARNING FOR:
       CITY OF TORONTO
       WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
       SARNIA - LAMBTON
       ELGIN
       LONDON - MIDDLESEX
       SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
       DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
       OXFORD - BRANT
       NIAGARA
       CITY OF HAMILTON
       HALTON - PEEL
       YORK - DURHAM
       HURON - PERTH
       WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
       DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
       GREY - BRUCE
       BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
       BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
       KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
       PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
       PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
       BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

      SIGNIFICANT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 ==DISCUSSION==
 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
 GREAT LAKES AND WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A SIGNIFICANT FALL STORM
 AS IT APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
 IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
 BLAST EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONS TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS
 AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
 WINDS OF 50 GUSTING TO 70 KM/H ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. BEHIND THE
 COLD FRONT, VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
 BLAST IN THIS EVENING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING UP
 TO 90 KM/H OR ABOVE. A FEW GUSTS OF 100 KM/H OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN
 REGIONS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGHER GROUND, SUCH AS SOUTHERN
 NIAGARA, PICTON AND THE DUNDALK HIGHLANDS.


REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/OSPC