groundhog day (forecasted storm of Feb.1st/2nd)

[obwan]

Looks like we could get some snow and no rain this time. However, it may pass too far to our south. I like how the guys at the Buffalo NWS are bored with the weather this winter. The people in Northern Indiana and Ohio are already talking Blizzard on this storm as its packing strong winds as well.

THEN...AFTER TWO MONTHS OF NOTHING BUT NEAR CONSTANT NICKEL AND DIME
LAKE SNOWS...WE HAVE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS WE START THE NEW
MONTH...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TWO THREATS FOR APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL. THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN ONE FOR WED...BUT WE ALSO HAVE A
MORE SUBTLE THREAT FOR TUES MORNING NOW AS WELL.

BAROCLINICITY WILL STRENGTHEN AS 850 MB TEMP ISOTHERMS TIGHTEN UP MON
NT INTO WED...AND A STRONG JET WILL STREAK ACROSS PA ON TUESDAY...
PLACING OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW
LATE MON NT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUES. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH
WITH A GOOD 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR CWA...WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF MAX IT OUT ALONG NY-PA BORDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL INCREASE
POPS DRASTICALLY FROM 10 TO 60 FROM ABOUT 10Z-18Z TUES AND WE
COULD SEE A SOLID 1-3/2-4 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...LESSER CHC AND
LOWER AMTS E OF LK ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE RACES OFF TO NEW ENG TUES
AFTERNOON AND WE GET INTO A LULL LATER TUES AND MUCH OF TUES NT
BEFORE THE REAL ACTION BEGINS...

MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A MAJOR STORM LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUES TO NEAR CINCI BY EARLY WED. EVENTUALLY
THIS SYSTEM TRANSFERS TO THE COAST...BUT BOTH GFS AND EC DELAY THIS
PROCESS AND KEEP THE "PRIMARY" LOW THE MAIN PLAYER UP INTO EASTERN
OHIO...WITH ITS POTENT JET STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A SLUG OF 0.5 TO 1
INCH QPF UP ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NY FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 18Z WED. EC
HAS BEEN ON THE HEAVIER SIDE WITH A STRIP OVER VERY HEAVY
QPF...1-1.5 INCH...FROM CHI TO DET TO YYZ AND BUF...BUT GFS LOOK
MORE REALISTIC WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOW WED
MORNING...THEN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT AS A DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
INTO ONTARIO WHILE COASTAL GETS GOING LATER WED AND WED EVE...THEN
SOME WRAPAROUND SWINGS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA WED NT.

THIS IS STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE AS 12Z GEM KEEP BULK OF SNOW SOUTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MAX PRECIP NEAR NY-PA BORDER (AN INCH) BUT A
SOLID 0.5 TO SOUTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
WARMER MODEL...BUT EVEN THIS IS A BIT COLDER THAN LAST RUN...WITH
850 MB ZERO ISOTHERM JUST TOUCHING OUR SRN TIER FOR AWHILE WED SO A
LITTLE SLEET COULDNT BE RULED OUT.

[obwan]

here's what their saying in detroit today

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK AS IF SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE PLACED WITHIN A
STRONG AREA OF DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN BETWEEN
850-700MB LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LAYER TO EVEN EXPAND DOWN TO 925 MB. THE ADDITION
OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND VERY STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL
PROVIDE DEEP LAYER LIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW
AT LEAST UP THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (POSSIBLY WEAKENING
IN INTENSITY AS WE LOSE JET SUPPORT)...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AT FIRST GLANCE...PW VALUES ONLY TOPPING
OUT AT 0.5 INCHES WOULD SUGGEST MODEL QPF AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF ONE
INCH ARE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...FURTHER ANALYSIS USING CROSS-SECTIONS
AND TIME-HEIGHTS SHOWS MOISTURE MAY BE CENTERED IN AN AREA OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHERE IT WILL REACH ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL. GFS/NAM SHOW
THE HIGHEST VALUES OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY (NOW UP TO 4 G/KG) CENTERED
WITHIN AND JUST ABOVE THE STRONG FGEN LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST
LIFT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WITHIN AND JUST BELOW STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES...AND ALSO LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
WITH THIS HIGH OF A DEGREE OF MOISTURE QUALITY...WENT WITH A GENERAL
8 TO 12 INCH ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS CONSERVATIVE GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT
AND HPC FORECAST WHICH HAVE TOTALS BETWEEN 18-24 INCHES. NORMALLY
NOT COMFORTABLE WITH A WATCH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT GIVEN
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND COORDINATION WITH HPC AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WE FELT THIS EVENT WAS WORTHY. IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A STRONG CORE OF NORTHEAST WINDS (AS HIGH
AS 50-60 KNOTS) FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB LOOKS TO CENTER
ITSELF OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
NOT 100 PERCENT CONFIDENT WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 35 MPH MIXING DOWN
DESPITE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DRAG. IF WINDY CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...IT WILL CREATE ADDITION PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING
SNOW...LOW VISIBILITIES...AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO. THIS STORM
CERTAINLY BEARS VERY CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND ADJUSTMENT TO SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

[davefootball123]

WOW 18-24 inches on one model. I think that is a little high but i could deffenitley see 25-30cm for us looking at the GFS

[davefootball123]

I have my discussion up on my site now http://www.southernontarioweather.ca...r-outlooks.php
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/and...-wednesday.asp
Also a snow squall could form off lake ontario monday night into tuesday morning bringing mabye 5-10cm to Oakville Hamilton Niagara before the main storm by about 12-18 hours

[Derecho]

Looks like majority of us will miss out on anything good. The track is still too far south for an epic snow event for southern Ontario. I feel EC's estimate of 20-30cm is a little too generous, especially for areas north of Lake Erie. 5-15cm looks most probable with the current track north of a line from south of Sarnia to London to Brantford to Grimsby.

[davefootball123]

I dont agree with that. The current GFS takes it through Central PA then through new york state as well as the euro. A good 20+ for hamilton and niagara. there is a posibility of 18 inches around fort wayne indiana

[ontariolightning]

20-30 cm is too conservative, for SW Ontario..London, Sarnia, Windsor will be getting 40-50 cm with widespread blowing snow

[davefootball123]

50 is really pushing it. 30-40 quite possible. Hamilton may even see a 30+ snowfall because of lake enhancment. But 50cm is a little much. Back in march 08 i beleive I measured snow in my yard that wasnt drift and it was 72cm. That was with lake enhancment and all that. It was an epic storm. Not so much wind though

[obwan]

latest from buffalo

AN AVERAGE OF MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
COULD FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER AIR NORTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS
COULD EXCEED ONE HALF INCH IF THE LATEST TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
QPF FORECASTS COME TO FRUITION

[ontariolightning]

Originally Posted by davefootball123

50 is really pushing it. 30-40 quite possible. Hamilton may even see a 30+ snowfall because of lake enhancment. But 50cm is a little much. Back in march 08 i beleive I measured snow in my yard that wasnt drift and it was 72cm. That was with lake enhancment and all that. It was an epic storm. Not so much wind though

i doubt we'll even know how much we got due to the heavy blowing snow that will occur