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Old 08-29-2010, 05:03 PM
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Derecho Derecho is offline
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Default Hurricane Earl - Atlantic Canada Threat

Hurricane Earl is currently located east of the Leeward Islands as a category one hurricane.

Models are really starting to come into agreement with where Earl is going, and some models are hinting at a Nova Scotia landfall next weekend.

Current NHC track takes Earl around the Delmarva Peninsula by Friday at 8am as a category three major hurricane. It could landfall anywhere from Long Island, NY to Cape Cod, MA then shoot northeast along the jet back into open waters, then landfall again around the Bay of Fundy area. If this were to occur, Earl would undergo considerable weakening as he would interact with land then emerge back over waters which would be very cold temperature wise. This could even lead to a subtropical storm or hurricane.

Another scenario is that Earl could just skirt Cape Cod, MA then speed up northeast and slam into Nova Scotia, or just brush Nova Scotia while remaining over open waters the possibly affecting NFLD.

The EURO for 24 hours now has been consistent with a Nova Scotia landfall around the Bay of Fundy area as a minimal hurricane, category one or two. The EURO also keeps Earl largely offshore New England, which would allow Earl to maintain hurricane strength.

Below is a zoomed in graphic of the EURO long range forecast for Sat. Sept. 4.10 at 00z.

Will be interesting to monitor the progress of Earl to see how Atlantic Canada may be impacted.

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