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Old 07-17-2013, 07:41 AM
tice23 tice23 is offline
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Default July 17th 2013

Today the SPC is depicting high probabilities for northern Ontario, however the data I've seen supports a lot of convection over the southern half of Ontario as well in the mid afternoon. I would think with high levels like that that some organized storms should come across southern Ontario today albeit less intense than what the north could get, but still very possible for severe weather IMO. 2% tornado probability for the northern region, but looking at the spout index and the significant tornado parameter maps, i think it's at least fair to say that southern Ontario, while lower on probability isn't quite zero either.

And some useful maps for today, mostly aimed around 4pm

SPC Forcast
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

ML CAPE
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/..._cape_usa9.png

Spout Index for low level convection (An indicator for EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes, but very broad spectrum)
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/...spout_usa9.png

Significant Tornado Parameter (ie chance of EF2 or <), 0-6km Wind Shear, 0-1km wind shear
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/...s_stp_usa9.png

Level of Free Convection
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/...s_lfc_usa9.png
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  #2  
Old 07-17-2013, 01:07 PM
tice23 tice23 is offline
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Default Re: July 17th 2013

Watches and warnings up:

Warnings:
Code:
Deep River - Whitney - Eastern Algonquin Park
12:29 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Deep River - Whitney - Eastern Algonquin Park issued

At 12:30 PM EDT, meteorologists are tracking an area of severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, strong winds and locally heavy downpours. These storms are moving eastward at 50 km/h. Wind gusts to 90 km/h, frequent lighting and heavy downpours giving 50 mm in less than one hour are likely with these storms.

The storms are approaching Deep River and over Eastern Algonquin Park at 12:30 PM EDT and will move over Petawawa near 12:45 PM EDT and continue Eastward.

Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Strong wind gusts and hail can damage property and cause injuries. Local downpours can cause flash floods.

Go indoors and move away from windows and skylights. Avoid areas of the building that could be affected by falling debris such as tree limbs. Stay on the lower floor of your home or building and if the storm is particularly severe go to the basement.

Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow fast moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle away.

In Canada, lightning kills up to 10 people every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/beprepared/beprepared.html .

Environment Canada continues to monitor the situation closely. Stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio for further updates. If you would like to report severe weather, you can send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca.

Updated or ended by 1:50 PM EDT.

Barry's Bay - Killaloe
12:29 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Barry's Bay - Killaloe issued

At 12:30 PM EDT, meteorologists are tracking an area of severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, strong winds and locally heavy downpours. These storms are moving eastward at 50 km/h. Wind gusts to 90 km/h, frequent lighting and heavy downpours giving 50 mm in less than one hour are likely with these storms.

The storms are approaching Deep River and over Eastern Algonquin Park at 12:30 PM EDT and will move over Petawawa near 12:45 PM EDT and continue Eastward.

Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Strong wind gusts and hail can damage property and cause injuries. Local downpours can cause flash floods.

Go indoors and move away from windows and skylights. Avoid areas of the building that could be affected by falling debris such as tree limbs. Stay on the lower floor of your home or building and if the storm is particularly severe go to the basement.

Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow fast moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle away.

In Canada, lightning kills up to 10 people every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/beprepared/beprepared.html .

Environment Canada continues to monitor the situation closely. Stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio for further updates. If you would like to report severe weather, you can send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca.

Updated or ended by 1:50 PM EDT.

Petawawa - Pembroke - Cobden
12:29 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Petawawa - Pembroke - Cobden issued

At 12:30 PM EDT, meteorologists are tracking an area of severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, strong winds and locally heavy downpours. These storms are moving eastward at 50 km/h. Wind gusts to 90 km/h, frequent lighting and heavy downpours giving 50 mm in less than one hour are likely with these storms.

The storms are approaching Deep River and over Eastern Algonquin Park at 12:30 PM EDT and will move over Petawawa near 12:45 PM EDT and continue Eastward.

Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Strong wind gusts and hail can damage property and cause injuries. Local downpours can cause flash floods.

Go indoors and move away from windows and skylights. Avoid areas of the building that could be affected by falling debris such as tree limbs. Stay on the lower floor of your home or building and if the storm is particularly severe go to the basement.

Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow fast moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle away.

In Canada, lightning kills up to 10 people every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/beprepared/beprepared.html .

Environment Canada continues to monitor the situation closely. Stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio for further updates. If you would like to report severe weather, you can send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca.

Updated or ended by 1:50 PM EDT
Watches: Anywhere north or east of Barrie-York area is now under severe T-storm watch.

Special Statements:
Code:
Special Weather Statement issued by Environment Canada at 12:04 PM EDT Wednesday 
17 July 2013. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Special 
Weather Statement for: =new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent =new= Sarnia - Lambton. 
Showers or thunderstorms with heavy downpours possible this afternoon. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==Discussion== a hot 
and very moist airmass over southern Ontario has created conditions favourable for the 
development of showers and thunderstorms. Although thunderstorm development is expected 
to be isolated, any that do develop will be slow moving and could produce torrential downpours
 with greater than 50 mm of rain. The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings
 as warnings may be required or extended. Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings 
from Environment Canada at www.Weatheroffice.Gc.CA End/ospc

Special Weather Statement issued by Environment Canada at 12:04 PM EDT Wednesday 
17 July 2013. --------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Special Weather Statement for: =new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent =new= Sarnia -
 Lambton. Showers or thunderstorms with heavy downpours possible this afternoon. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==Discussion== 
a hot and very moist airmass over southern Ontario has created conditions favourable for
 the development of showers and thunderstorms. Although thunderstorm development is 
expected to be isolated, any that do develop will be slow moving and could produce 
torrential downpours with greater than 50 mm of rain. The public is advised to monitor
 future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended. Please monitor 
the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.Weatheroffice.Gc.CA 
End/ospc
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  #3  
Old 07-17-2013, 02:11 PM
tice23 tice23 is offline
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Default Re: July 17th 2013

New Warnings:

Code:
Windsor - Leamington - Essex County
1:52 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Windsor - Leamington - Essex County issued

At 1:55 pm EDT, meteorologists are tracking a slow moving severe thunderstorm with very heavy downpours capable of producing localized flooding.

Communities in the path include: Leamington and Wheatley.

Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Local downpours can cause flash floods.

Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow fast moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle away. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/beprepared/beprepared.html .

Environment Canada continues to monitor the situation closely. Stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio for further updates. If you would like to report severe weather, you can send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca.

Updated or ended by 3:00 PM EDT.

Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park
1:52 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park issued

At 1:55 pm EDT, meteorologists are tracking a slow moving severe thunderstorm with very heavy downpours capable of producing localized flooding.

Communities in the path include: Leamington and Wheatley.

Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Local downpours can cause flash floods.

Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow fast moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle away. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/beprepared/beprepared.html .

Environment Canada continues to monitor the situation closely. Stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio for further updates. If you would like to report severe weather, you can send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca.

Updated or ended by 3:00 PM EDT.

Stirling - Tweed - Madoc
1:31 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Stirling - Tweed - Madoc continued

At 1:30 PM EDT, meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and heavy downpours.

Communities in the path include: Napanee and Kingston

Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Strong wind gusts and hail can damage property and cause injuries. Local downpours can cause flash floods.

Go indoors and move away from windows and skylights. Avoid areas of the building that could be affected by falling debris such as tree limbs. Stay on the lower floor of your home or building and if the storm is particularly severe go to the basement.

Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow fast moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle away.

Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes.

In Canada, lightning kills up to 10 people every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/beprepared/beprepared.html .

Environment Canada continues to monitor the situation closely. Stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio for further updates. If you would like to report severe weather, you can send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca.

Updated or ended by 2:30 PM EDT.

Tamworth - Sydenham - South Frontenac
1:31 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Tamworth - Sydenham - South Frontenac continued

At 1:30 PM EDT, meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and heavy downpours.

Communities in the path include: Napanee and Kingston

Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Strong wind gusts and hail can damage property and cause injuries. Local downpours can cause flash floods.

Go indoors and move away from windows and skylights. Avoid areas of the building that could be affected by falling debris such as tree limbs. Stay on the lower floor of your home or building and if the storm is particularly severe go to the basement.

Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow fast moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle away.

Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes.

In Canada, lightning kills up to 10 people every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/beprepared/beprepared.html .

Environment Canada continues to monitor the situation closely. Stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio for further updates. If you would like to report severe weather, you can send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca.

Updated or ended by 2:30 PM EDT

Napanee - Consecon
2:10 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Napanee - Consecon continued

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.

Kingston - Odessa - Frontenac Islands
2:10 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Kingston - Odessa - Frontenac Islands continued

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio.
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  #4  
Old 07-17-2013, 02:29 PM
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WayfaringStranger WayfaringStranger is offline
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Default Re: July 17th 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for: Kingston - Odessa - Frontenac Islands - Napanee - Consecon - Stirling - Tweed - Madoc - Tamworth - Sydenham - South Frontenac

Quote:
At 2:20 PM EDT, meteorologists are tracking several severe thunderstorms located northwest of Napanee and near Verona. These storms are capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and heavy downpours and are tracking slowly southeastward.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for: Smiths Falls - Perth - Eastern Lanark County - Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans

Quote:
At 2:00 PM EDT, meteorologists are tracking an area of severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, strong winds and locally heavy downpours. These storms are moving eastward at 50 km/h. Wind gusts to 110 km/h, frequent lighting and heavy downpours giving 50 mm in less than one hour are likely with these storms. There is now the possibility of very large hail with these storms estimated to be 4 to 6 cm in diameter.

The strongest storms are between Renfew and Arnprior and will lie between Carlton Place and Ottawa at 2:45 PM EDT.
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  #5  
Old 07-17-2013, 02:36 PM
tice23 tice23 is offline
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Default Re: July 17th 2013

interesting storm south east of ottawa, appears to be rotating significantly, but if im not mistaken, its rotating clockwise... not sure what to make out of that...


Last edited by tice23; 07-17-2013 at 03:06 PM. Reason: better resolution
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  #6  
Old 07-17-2013, 02:53 PM
tice23 tice23 is offline
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Default Re: July 17th 2013

here's the doppler radar for the storm that was just warned minutes ago by EC in WayfaringStranger's post

small couplet at the bottom edge, as well as a few areas embedded in the segment of storms


Last edited by tice23; 07-17-2013 at 03:05 PM. Reason: better resolution
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  #7  
Old 07-17-2013, 06:54 PM
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Default Re: July 17th 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings up for: Bancroft - Hastings Highlands - Denbigh - Plevna - Sharbot Lake - Western Lanark County - Smiths Falls - Perth - Eastern Lanark County - Renfrew - Arnprior - Calabogie - Barry's Bay - Killaloe
Quote:
At 6:40 pm EDT, meteorologists are tracking a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, strong winds and locally heavy downpours. The line is located from Renfrew to McArthur Mills and is tracking southeast at 50 km/h.
Severe thunderstorm warning for Prescott and Russell
Quote:
Prescott and Russell
6:31 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Prescott and Russell continued

At 6:30 PM EDT, meteorologists are tracking a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, strong winds and locally heavy downpours. This line is moving southeast at 70 km/h and is located just north of Papineauville QC.

Communities in the path include: Alfred and Vankleek Hill.
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  #8  
Old 07-17-2013, 07:35 PM
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Default Re: July 17th 2013

New Warning for Sarnia - Lambton:

Code:
Sarnia - Petrolia - Western Lambton County
7:27 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Sarnia - Petrolia - Western Lambton County issued

At 7:20 PM EDT, meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and heavy downpours. Heavy downpours near 50 mm per hour and very frequent lighting are likely with this storm.

Communities in the path include: near Petrolia and moving southeastwards at 50 km/h.

Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Strong wind gusts and hail can damage property and cause injuries. Local downpours can cause flash floods.

Go indoors and move away from windows and skylights. Avoid areas of the building that could be affected by falling debris such as tree limbs. Stay on the lower floor of your home or building and if the storm is particularly severe go to the basement.

Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow fast moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle away.

Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes.

In Canada, lightning kills up to 10 people every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/beprepared/beprepared.html .

Environment Canada continues to monitor the situation closely. Stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio for further updates. If you would like to report severe weather, you can send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca.

Updated or ended by 8:40 PM EDT.

Watford - Pinery Park - Eastern Lambton County
7:27 PM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Watford - Pinery Park - Eastern Lambton County issued

At 7:20 PM EDT, meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and heavy downpours. Heavy downpours near 50 mm per hour and very frequent lighting are likely with this storm.

Communities in the path include: near Petrolia and moving southeastwards at 50 km/h.

Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Strong wind gusts and hail can damage property and cause injuries. Local downpours can cause flash floods.

Go indoors and move away from windows and skylights. Avoid areas of the building that could be affected by falling debris such as tree limbs. Stay on the lower floor of your home or building and if the storm is particularly severe go to the basement.

Avoid driving through water on roads. Even shallow fast moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle away.

Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes.

In Canada, lightning kills up to 10 people every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/english/beprepared/beprepared.html .

Environment Canada continues to monitor the situation closely. Stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio for further updates. If you would like to report severe weather, you can send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca.

Updated or ended by 8:40 PM EDT
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  #9  
Old 07-17-2013, 07:43 PM
tice23 tice23 is offline
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Default Re: July 17th 2013

expect the cell by sarnia to intensify and more to flare up:

current conditions
MLCAPE:
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/..._cape_usa0.png

Free Convection:
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/...s_lfc_usa0.png

Spout index:
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/...spout_usa0.png

Significant tornado parameter, 0-6km shear, 0-1km shear
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/...s_stp_usa0.png

There may be a line of organized storms behind the warned storm that are still in their early convective stages, there's a lot of available energy there if the mix is just right.
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  #10  
Old 07-17-2013, 07:44 PM
Thunderbolt Thunderbolt is offline
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Default Re: July 17th 2013

I'm currently being hit with a severe storm. Definitely the worst storm in 2 years. Really heavy rain, thunder and lightning. Saw some rotation on radar earlier.
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