Sunday July 15 Storm Risk

[Storm Chaser]

It seems likely, with up to 3000j/kg with the soaring daytime high in the mid thirties that daytime heating storms will go up on Sunday. If the lake breezes cooperate, some storms could get interesting. Also, heads up for Tuesday. A rather significant event may come into play.

[Derecho]

Towers o' plenty around here.

Looks like a lake breeze or other boundary is producing a nearly stationary line of storms from Lake Ontario to Brantford with intense lightning being detected.

[Derecho]

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:53 PM EDT FRIDAY 13 JULY 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON.

      MARBLE TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH A SLOW
      MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER HAMILTON. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO
      LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED.

[Storm Chaser]

I was so close but missed the best action today. Tomorrow a 5% has been issued so i hope to luck out better tomorrow and sunday. Tuesday continues to look very intriquing.

[harrisale]

Sunday is looking promising for sure. Latest run showing solid 2000+ J/Kg Max CAPE for southern Ontario.

Will keep an eye on this.

Decent storm today with cloud tops hitting 45K at one point, CAPE was lower around 1500 J/Kg; so Sunday looks good

[harrisale]

Radar indicated 2.00" hail today as well. Was watching from Guelph, stationary and just barely missed the action out to the west.

[Storm Chaser]

indeed, tops even broke 50k at times. Sunday will likely be a 5% like tomorrow. Tuesday could be an intense squall line or pherhaps multiple mcs's and will likely be a slight risk provided no downturn in models.

[Raedwulf]

Originally Posted by harrisale

Sunday is looking promising for sure. Latest run showing solid 2000+ J/Kg Max CAPE for southern Ontario.

Will keep an eye on this.

Decent storm today with cloud tops hitting 45K at one point, CAPE was lower around 1500 J/Kg; so Sunday looks good

One thing I learned is it doesn't matter how much energy you have in the atmosphere without a trigger.

It's like having a barrel of gun powder with no ignition

[Storm Chaser]

indeed Raedwulf, fortunately tomorrow and Sunday appear similar to today with the lake breezes acting as the triggers.

[harrisale]

Originally Posted by Raedwulf

One thing I learned is it doesn't matter how much energy you have in the atmosphere without a trigger.

It's like having a barrel of gun powder with no ignition

Cool thanks for the info. I'm fairly new to the chasing game. Learning so much these days! Especially about the unique conditions in SW Ontario.