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  #1  
Old 08-30-2011, 10:02 AM
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Default Sept. 2nd/3rd, 2011

I have a feeling about this upcoming weekend, temperatures are forecasted to build into the low to mid 30's again by Friday, and Saturday is not looking so impressive temperature wise. I'm thinking cold frontal passage? What are your thoughts?
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Old 08-30-2011, 12:20 PM
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Default Re: Sept. 2nd/3rd, 2011

Friday looks interesting, the gfs shows good surface temps with CAPE around 2000-2500 in some areas with 25-30kts of shear. Hopefully something comes out of this. Temperatures expected to hit 33 or higher in some areas.
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Old 08-30-2011, 01:03 PM
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Default Re: Sept. 2nd/3rd, 2011

The 12z run of the gfs brings in 30-40 kts of shear with cape exceeding 2000 in a large area. Could be an interesting day on friday for sure!
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Old 08-30-2011, 01:06 PM
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Default Re: Sept. 2nd/3rd, 2011

Latest 12z run shows MUCAPE from about 1500 to almost 3000j/kg in areas near the thumb/sarnia. Shear is less than impressive with 25-30kts in place. GFS shows some QPF in place but nothing substantial. I dont expect a August 24th out of this but some severe thunderstorms are not out of the question
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Old 08-30-2011, 05:59 PM
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Default Re: Sept. 2nd/3rd, 2011

Could be good, I'll have to keep my eyes peeled. Thanks for the updates!
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Old 09-01-2011, 08:46 PM
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Default Re: Sept. 2nd/3rd, 2011

Today looks like a bust. There looked to be dark clouds towards Guelph, but i didn't see anything on radar that was impressive. What exactly happened with all the potential energy. I thought that the wind shear would have sparked something as it was measured up to 50 kts
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Old 09-02-2011, 05:31 PM
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Default Re: Sept. 2nd/3rd, 2011

from buffalo

Quote:
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. THE LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES THE TREND OF
SOMEWHAT SLOWER TIMING FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WEAK COLD FRONTAL
SEGMENT SATURDAY NIGHT ESSENTIALLY WASHES OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO BEFORE REACHING NEW YORK STATE...LEAVING THE CWA SOLIDLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THERE MAY BE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON LINGERING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT
AFTER THEY TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT MUCH OF
THE NIGHT TO BE RAIN FREE. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT
AS WELL WITH 850MB TEMPS STAYING UP CLOSE TO 20C OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG AND
SHARPEN INTO THE UPPER LAKES...ALLOWING ANOTHER STRONGER SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH DIGS TO OUR WEST...IT
WILL CAPTURE A PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
PWATS UP CLOSE TO 1.9 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
AVERAGE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM LEE IN THE GULF IS DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
OR NOT...BUT REGARDLESS A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL GOES...
THE RISK APPEARS CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. WIND
FIELDS STEADILY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY WITH MODERATE 0-6KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE BY LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTIVE OF
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION MARK REMAINS HOW
UNSTABLE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO BECOME. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE
AND HEATING IS REALIZED ON SUNDAY BEFORE CONVECTION ARRIVES...SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY RISK
AND A SECONDARY RISK FOR HAIL.
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Old 09-03-2011, 08:27 AM
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Default Re: Sept. 2nd/3rd, 2011

for port huron/lower michigan

Quote:
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN MORE URBANIZED AREAS
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Old 09-03-2011, 10:39 AM
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Default Re: Sept. 2nd/3rd, 2011

Hrm, There is quite the complex of very strong storms now in central MI, that appear to be moving NE, if they hold strength that could get nasty for Huron/Perth, Grey/Bruce.
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Old 09-03-2011, 11:33 AM
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Default Re: Sept. 2nd/3rd, 2011

storm watches out for sw on...
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