Ontario Storms Site!  

Go Back   Ontario Storms Site! > Ontario Storms Forums > The Truck Stop: Storm Talk & Chit-Chat

The Truck Stop: Storm Talk & Chit-Chat General talk on past, current, and future storms - all talk about UPCOMING storms goes here

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-25-2010, 12:05 PM
Smokin Joe Smokin Joe is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Bradford, ON
Posts: 238
Thanks: 94
Thanked 38 Times in 27 Posts
Default Oct 26, 2010 Possible Severe?

SPC AC 250559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

Code:
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO
   THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POWERHOUSE CYCLONE WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NCNTRL
   STATES ON TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH SWINGING ENE THROUGH THE
   MIDWEST AND OH/TN VLYS.  SUB-970 MB LOW WILL OCCLUDE ALONG THE MN/NW
   ONTARIO BORDER WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING E AND S...REACHING A
   NY STATE...ERN KY...NRN MS...CNTRL TX LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
   RAPID MASS ADJUSTMENTS WILL BEGIN PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE
   STRONG PV-ANOMALY PIVOTS ENE THROUGH THE OH VLY/CNTRL GREAT LAKES
   REGION.  LLVL WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RESPOND WITH 850 MB SSWLY FLOW OF
   60+ KTS TRANSPORTING MODEST MOISTURE WELL-NWD.  STEEP PRE-FRONTAL
   LLVL LAPSE RATES...AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE AND
   INTENSE/NARROW FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL YIELD ONE OR MORE BANDS OF
   THUNDERSTORMS.  BANDS SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR/JUST E OF THE MID/UPR
   MS RVR VLY AT 12Z TUESDAY.  STORMS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ENE ACROSS THE
   CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION DURING PEAK HEATING WITH
   CORRIDORS OF HIGH WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
   LEWPS/BOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES.
   
   FARTHER S IN THE OH/TN VLYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/INSTABILITY
   WILL BE COMPARATIVELY HIGHER/STRONGER ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE
   STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS.  HERE...THE SRN EDGE OF THE LINEAR MCS MAY BE
   JOINED BY SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
   AMIDST STRONG LLVL SRH.  THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HIGH WIND RISK.
   
   ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH
   TUESDAY EVENING AND KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.  PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
   WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG SRN EDGE OF THE EJECTING
   TROUGH.  NONETHELESS...VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS WEAKLY SUPPORT
   DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING WHERE DEEP
   LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.  AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED THE
   CNTRL GULF COAST REGION IN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK.
..RACY.. 10/25/2010


a nice storm tomorrow will be sweet if it happens.......
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-25-2010, 02:07 PM
Derecho's Avatar
Derecho Derecho is offline
Rank: F1 Tornado Chaser
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Region of Waterloo, ON
Posts: 1,083
Thanks: 103
Thanked 245 Times in 178 Posts
Default Re: Oct 26, 2010 Possible Severe?

We've been put under an MDT:

Code:
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND MUCH OF
   INDIANA...KENTUCKY AND OHIO...WHERE A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE MAY BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED
   TORNADOES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE
   VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS...
__________________
Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario
All Ontario tornadoes:
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-25-2010, 03:06 PM
Derecho's Avatar
Derecho Derecho is offline
Rank: F1 Tornado Chaser
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Region of Waterloo, ON
Posts: 1,083
Thanks: 103
Thanked 245 Times in 178 Posts
Default Re: Oct 26, 2010 Possible Severe?

That low pressure system moving towards is almost one for the record books .

Things are going to get really interesting in the next 48 hours with the wind, rain, and severe weather. Winds at 850mb could be at 80 knots, with about 40 knots at 1000mb. Serious damaging wind potential tomorrow evening. Hence the moderate risk.
__________________
Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario
All Ontario tornadoes:
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

Last edited by Derecho; 10-25-2010 at 03:08 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-25-2010, 03:18 PM
Derecho's Avatar
Derecho Derecho is offline
Rank: F1 Tornado Chaser
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Region of Waterloo, ON
Posts: 1,083
Thanks: 103
Thanked 245 Times in 178 Posts
Default Re: Oct 26, 2010 Possible Severe?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Derecho View Post
That low pressure system moving towards is almost one for the record books .

Things are going to get really interesting in the next 48 hours with the wind, rain, and severe weather. Winds at 850mb could be at 80 knots, with about 40 knots at 1000mb. Serious damaging wind potential tomorrow evening. Hence the moderate risk.
Code:
FORECAST DISCUSSION: As the National Weather Service has noted, the second 
most powerful storm system ever to hit the Midwest and Great Lakes states
is developing now int he Plains, and will rapidly intensify and move 
northeastward into Minnesota tonight, intensifying very rapidly as it does 
so. This will pull warm, moist air northward from the Gulf, and produce a 
squall line of severe thunderstorms from eastern Iowa and western 
Wisconsin to eastern Missouri tonight, and then move across the eastern 
Great Lakes and Ohio valley tomorrow, producing mostly straight-line 
damaging winds. But then, as the low pressure center drops to 28.30" of 
mercury, the extreme pressure gradient will produce damaging winds
within 200 miles around the low pressure track. This places areas
along and north of I-80 in the zone for winds to exceed 55 MPH, and thus
high wind criteria, tomorrow afternoon and then again on Wednesday
as the system continues to intensify and lift northeastward across
Lake Superior.
__________________
Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario
All Ontario tornadoes:
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-25-2010, 03:31 PM
ontariolightning ontariolightning is offline
Rank: Towering Cumulus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Wallaceburg Ontario
Posts: 81
Thanks: 0
Thanked 4 Times in 4 Posts
Default Re: Oct 26, 2010 Possible Severe?

Possible Derecho indeed. The wind will likely knock whatever leaves that are still on the trees.
If this is going to be the 2nd most powerful storm up here I wonder what the first is.
Is it the White Hurricane from 1913? can't be that one as the Lowest pressure there was 968.5 mb (28.60 inches)
okay it was the blizzard of 1978,

The 28.28 inches (958 millibars) barometric pressure measurement recorded in Cleveland, Ohio remains the lowest non-tropical atmospheric pressure ever recorded in the mainland United States.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1978

current; from detroit

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE...29.10 INCHES...WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS MORNING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT...DEEPENING TO 28.60 INCHES. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AND DEEPEN TO
28.30 INCHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...t1=Storm+Watch
__________________
I've got to go Julia, we've got cows!

Last edited by ontariolightning; 10-25-2010 at 03:34 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 10-25-2010, 04:28 PM
davefootball123's Avatar
davefootball123 davefootball123 is offline
Rank: Supercell Chaser
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Hamilton
Posts: 747
Thanks: 49
Thanked 103 Times in 81 Posts
Default Re: Oct 26, 2010 Possible Severe?

check out www.southernontarioweather.ca for the full story
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 10-25-2010, 07:05 PM
Derecho's Avatar
Derecho Derecho is offline
Rank: F1 Tornado Chaser
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Region of Waterloo, ON
Posts: 1,083
Thanks: 103
Thanked 245 Times in 178 Posts
Default Re: Oct 26, 2010 Possible Severe?

Here is a comparable event on Oct 18, 2007
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/out...1018_2000.html

Severe outcome:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/071018_rpts.html
__________________
Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario
All Ontario tornadoes:
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 10-25-2010, 07:14 PM
davefootball123's Avatar
davefootball123 davefootball123 is offline
Rank: Supercell Chaser
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Hamilton
Posts: 747
Thanks: 49
Thanked 103 Times in 81 Posts
Default Re: Oct 26, 2010 Possible Severe?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Derecho View Post
WOWOWOWOWOWO. and u gotta remember the risk is a tad farther east. Making us in 30%. Also it looks a little like October 24th 2001
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Oct...rnado_outbreak
Only down side to what derecho posted was that i was looking at the archived radar loops and it died at london and KW Hamilton and Niagara got some rain with thunder with the balk being south and west

Last edited by davefootball123; 10-25-2010 at 07:19 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 10-25-2010, 07:46 PM
Derecho's Avatar
Derecho Derecho is offline
Rank: F1 Tornado Chaser
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Region of Waterloo, ON
Posts: 1,083
Thanks: 103
Thanked 245 Times in 178 Posts
Default Re: Oct 26, 2010 Possible Severe?

Quote:
Originally Posted by davefootball123 View Post
WOWOWOWOWOWO. and u gotta remember the risk is a tad farther east. Making us in 30%. Also it looks a little like October 24th 2001
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Oct...rnado_outbreak
Only down side to what derecho posted was that i was looking at the archived radar loops and it died at london and KW Hamilton and Niagara got some rain with thunder with the balk being south and west
I looked back to Oct 19 07 warnings, only a severe tstorm watch was issued for SW ON. No other watches or warnings. Interesting to note Oct 18 early morning hours exhibited dense fog across southern Ontario. We've been having dense fog this morning and possibly again tonight.
__________________
Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario
All Ontario tornadoes:
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 10-25-2010, 08:01 PM
Derecho's Avatar
Derecho Derecho is offline
Rank: F1 Tornado Chaser
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Region of Waterloo, ON
Posts: 1,083
Thanks: 103
Thanked 245 Times in 178 Posts
Default Re: Oct 26, 2010 Possible Severe?

Code:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1030 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

HOW THE UPCOMING CYCLONE RANKS AMONG OTHER NOTABLE CYCLONES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.

RANK EVENT DATE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

1. GREAT OHIO BLIZZARD 1/26/1978 950 HPA /28.05 IN/

2. UPCOMING EVENT 10/26-27/2010 959 HPA* /28.35 IN/

3. ARMISTICE DAY STORM 11/11/1940 967 HPA /28.55 IN/
ANNIVERSARY STORM 11/10/1998 967 HPA /28.55 IN/

4. CYCLONE OF 1913 11/7-9/1913 968 HPA /28.60 IN/
/AKA WHITE HURRICANE/

5. EDMUND FITZGERALD STORM 11/10/1975 980 HPA /28.95 IN/


* AVERAGE AMONG SEVERAL CURRENT FORECAST MODELS


$$
MERZLOCK
__________________
Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario
All Ontario tornadoes:
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

PICTURE OF THE MOMENT - Photo by: Itchy (Apr.12, 2014, London, ON)


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:03 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
All original material copyright OntarioStorms.com, all 3rd party material copyrights held by original publisher