Tropical Cyclone Information Statement for Southern Ontario

[Derecho]

WOCN31 CWHX 252345
Tropical cyclone information statement issued by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 9:00 PM ADT Thursday 25 October 2012
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Tropical cyclone information statement for:
=new= Nova Scotia
=new= Prince Edward Island
=new= New Brunswick
=new= Southern Quebec
=new= Southern Ontario.

For hurricane Sandy.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.

This is a preliminary information statement to discuss the
Potential impact of hurricane Sandy in Canada.

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==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy nearly reached Major hurricane status last night
As it approached Cuba. The hurricane will be moving through the
Bahamas with winds in excess of 140 km/h tonight and Friday. During
the weekend Sandy is forecast to track northward while remaining at
or near hurricane strength. Sandy will begin to lose some of its
tropical characteristics early in the new week, it will however
remain a large and powerful cyclone as it shifts toward the East
Coast of the United States.

Sandy will quite likely impact parts of Eastern Canada early next
week. The track and intensity will, as always, depend on many
changing factors over a period of several days. Thus, it is too
early to meaningfully state how the storm will affect particular
areas. At this point in time we encourage consulting the forecasts
periodically during the next few days.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/ROBICHAUD/COUTURIER

[Thunderbolt]

There's also a special weather statement.

WOCN11 CWTO 261719
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 1:19 PM
EDT Friday 26 October 2012.
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Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
=new= Sarnia - Lambton
=new= Elgin
=new= London - Middlesex
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= Niagara
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Grey - Bruce
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland
=new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
=new= Kingston - Prince Edward
=new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
=new= Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
=new= Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
=new= Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
=new= City of Ottawa
=new= Gatineau
=new= Prescott and Russell
=new= Cornwall - Morrisburg
=new= Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
=new= Parry Sound - Muskoka
=new= Haliburton
=new= Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
=new= Algonquin
=new= Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Wet, windy and wild weather possible beginning Monday night.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==

The remnants of hurricane Sandy may arrive on Monday night as a large
and powerful post tropical fall storm over Southern Ontario.
Latest indications show a significant chance that the storm may
follow an unusual northwest track towards the Lower Great Lakes from
the mid Atlantic states.

There is the potential for a significant rainfall event for Southern
and Eastern Ontario beginning Monday night and continuing through
Tuesday and possibly into Halloween. Strong and gusty winds will
also accompany this storm if it takes this unusual track.

The remnants of hurricane Sandy may also draw in enough cold air for
some wet snow to fall especially over higher ground over southcentral
Ontario to areas northeast of Georgian Bay. There is some potential
for the first measurable snowfall of the season if temperatures near
the ground get close enough to the zero degree mark.

There is still uncertainty as to the track and intensity of this
storm.

More information can be found in the WOCN31 CWHX tropical cyclone
information statement updated by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of
Environment Canada.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

END/OSPC

[Anspray]

Are we all going to die?

[qcstorm]

It's going to be really interesting to see what exactly happens. Even though Sandy will likely be a tropical storm when it hit, it looks like it will couple up with a strengthening nor'eastern. Although models aren't in much agreement concerning the track.

[Anspray]

I'm stocking up on candles, water and stuff...

[Derecho]

Guess we'll have to see what happens. Wish I could say more, but I find days in advance model output is mostly just hearsay and guesses. You can say models currently indicate this is what is to happen, then on the next run is completely different, then by the time it arrives it's more than what was forecast, much much less, or somewhere in the middle. The current projections are sounding pretty dire, but we all know that can change on a dime.

Environment Canada sums it up nicely with a real big 'Could be' or 'Couldn't be' in both Toronto and CHC weather statements. Could be windy, could be rainy, could be snow, could be nothing. Media is doing a good job with the sensationalism, though. Everything from "Storm of the Century" to "Frankenstorm" to even Chad Meyers at CNN last night calling this the greatest threat to human life he has seen in his 26 years of weather-related jobs. Guess he forgot about Hurricane Katrina...

[Reffik]

Two weeks ago was the anniversary of Hurricane Hazel.

Conditions are not entirely similar, but with the soil being saturated as it is right now, it's something engineers are thinking about.

[Derecho]

Originally Posted by Reffik

Two weeks ago was the anniversary of Hurricane Hazel.

Conditions are not entirely similar, but with the soil being saturated as it is right now, it's something engineers are thinking about.

Which engineers?

[DarkSky]

==DISCUSSION==
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST TROPICAL FALL STORM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. IT WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND TAKE AN UNUSUAL PATH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

IF THE STORM CURVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHICH A CONSENSUS OF NUMEROUS WEATHER MODELS SUGGESTS, THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ONTARIO TOO. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM IF IT TAKES THIS PATH. THE STORM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN LATER TUESDAY AND ON HALLOWEEN, BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL, DAMP AND WINDY.

A NARROW BAND OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HALIBURTON HIGHLANDS AND THE HIGHER GROUND SOUTHWEST OF GEORGIAN BAY. IT MAY BE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IF TEMPERATURES FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK, BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE PRESENCE OF A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. POST-TROPICAL STORMS INTERACTING WITH FRONTS CAN PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. PERSISTENT RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG THIS FRONT FOR THE TWO OR THREE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE ARRIVAL OF SANDY.
IT MAY AMOUNT TO 20 TO 30 MM OR MORE OVER THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NIAGARA, SOUTHCENTRAL ONTARIO AND NORTH TO GEORGIAN BAY. AN ADDITIONAL 30 TO 50 MM IS POSSIBLE WITH SANDY WITH EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OVER 75 MM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD 50 TO 70 KM/H LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO BEGINNING LATER MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS OVER 90 KM/H ARE ALSO LIKELY, AS WELL AS STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF SODDEN GROUND, STRONG WINDS AND SOME RESIDUAL LEAVES ON TREES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF POWER OUTAGES DUE TO FALLEN LIMBS AND SOME DOWNED TREES ON SNAPPED WIRES.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO PUT THIS STORM IN PERSPECTIVE. THE MAIN REASON IT IS GETTING CONSIDERABLE PRESS IS THE FORECAST INTENSITY BY VARIOUS WEATHER MODELS, AS WELL AS THE HEAVILY-POPULATED NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT WOULD FEEL ITS GREATEST IMPACT. MOST WEATHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORM ACHIEVING AN UNPRECEDENTED LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE AS IT COMES ASHORE LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE LOWER THE
PRESSURE: THE MORE INTENSE THE WINDS AND RAIN AROUND THE STORM. IT'S POSSIBLE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE STORM STRENGTH. BUT EVEN IF THAT IS TRUE, IT MAY STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM TO RECKON WITH.

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE WOCN31 CWHX TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS AS WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OR EXTENDED.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA

END

50-70km/hr winds with gusts to 90, 75mm of rain in parts. Looks like we're right in the path of it here in Niagara!

[Derecho]

A flood outlook has been issued for just about everyone:

Provincial Messages Issued for:

MNR Districts:

Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Chapleau, Cochrane, Dryden, Fort Frances, Guelph, Hearst, Kemptville, Kenora, Kirkland Lake, Midhurst, Nipigon, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough, Red Lake, Sault Ste Marie, Sioux Lookout, Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Timmins, Wawa


Conservation Authorities:

Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Grey Sauble, Halton, Hamilton, Kawartha, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Lakehead Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mattagami Region, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, Nickel District, North Bay Mattawa, Nottawasaga Valley, Otonabee, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Saugeen, Sault Ste Marie Region, South Nation, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River

Weather Situation



Northern Ontario-



This region has already received significant rainfall over the last 2days. With areas from Kenora to Sault Ste.Marie receiving amounts in the order of 70-100mm over a 48hr period.



Wawa, Sault Ste. Marie, and northeast to Cochrane are forecast to continue to receive rainfall for the next 12hrs in the amounts of 20-40mm; with higher amounts from thunderstorm activity occurring as the frontal wave moves out of the province.







Southern Ontario-



Over the next 4 days, central and eastern regions in Southern Ontario are forecast to receive rain with total accumulated amounts over 50mm.



Friday – 5-15mm (higher amounts with potential Thunderstorm Activity)



Saturday – 5-30mm (higher amounts East of Toronto)



Sunday – 5-15mm



Monday – 5-30mm





Tuesday – Wednesday - >100mm possible (if remnants of Hurricane Sandy get pulled into the Province)





The MNR Weather Centre is currently watching the forecast track of Hurricane Sandy. Some (not all) model guidance brings the storm ashore somewhere over the US east coast as a very intense low pressure system by late Monday (Oct. 29th).