Friday, August 4th Storm Potential

[Mesocyclone97]

I've been watching models closely and it looks like we may have our first shot of an organized severe weather potential in this crappy year so far.

The NAM and GFS are both in agreement that a shortwave trough will traverse the great lakes, however differ slightly in terms of actual track. The NAM has the low progged to travel more North than does the GFS, this would give us a better warm sector and would be ideal.

NAM model soundings show decent CAPE for most of S ON although target regions seem to be Barrie area East to Kawartha Lakes/Peterborough region where the shear seems to be a bit better. Niagara region seems good too.

NAM 3k shows storm initiation just West of GTA area, growing into a squall-line in the Peterborough area.

Thoughts?