Sept. 5, 2014

[Mesocyclone97]

Crossing my fingers for some severe weather action tomorrow, as you all know this year has been a real bummer for that. Looking at the models, seems like CAPE values are going to be crazy (as high as 3,000 J/kg in some places), but seem to be lacking severely in wind shear, so I'm not expecting storm organization to be that great. SPC has also slapped on a 5% Marginal risk for the Lower Great Lakes tomorrow.

NAM Surface Based CAPE: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/mode...PE_SURFACE.png

NAM Surface - 500mb Bulk Shear: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/mode...HRM_500_MB.png

SPC Convective Outlook - Day 2: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[tice23]

Fingers crossed as well, I hope it takes all the heat out of the air as it moves through so I can move on Saturday with more comfortable temps, haha.

That being said, other than the low wind shear it seems the rest of the ingredients are there for an exciting day, particularly from orange ville, towards north bay, lots of lightning from the existing storms so far, the surface heating during the day will also help it along so hopefully we will see some exciting stuff

[Raedwulf]

I just really badly want a derecho.

[tice23]

we had quite the wind storm here, lots of rotation on radar and 104.1fm "the dock" have reported damage to hydro lines in tiny township as well as similar events near bracebridge

[tice23]

also the cell east of gravenhurst is still rotating and picking up strength, i feel it should be upgraded from severe t-storm with the consistent rotation its shown for the past hour, and its about to go into the dead zone where the radar cant see it anymore...

[Mesocyclone97]

CAPE is now up to 4,000 J/kg in some areas! WOW!

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/mode...PE_SURFACE.png

[Raedwulf]

Ingredients are nice ..wind shear lacking a bit the more south you go in southern ontario.
It seems like if anything eventually makes its way to saint catharines it'll be late late night, possibly tomorrow..and it'll be leftovers.
For the past few years I have mentioned as the season comes to a close..how disappointing each year has been for storms where ever I've lived. Each year seems to get a little less exciting than the last. It's really a shame as I am deeply passionate about severe weather and I get aw struck at its beauty and magnificence. It's just one let down after another from my location..so I don't expect much if anything my way..but fingers crossed something comes.

Earlier this morning my area got some intense lightning that was striking close by..and some intense rain but nothing special really.

*fingers crossed*

[Raedwulf]

Well

It actually made it here.

Then it was really lame.

I give up.

[tice23]

http://www.orilliapacket.com/2013/09...ing-in-orillia

The storms hit here pretty hard, particularly round 2 with tonnes of lightning, torrential rains and hail. i saw dime sized hail but some friends in orillia claimed it was nearly golfball sized at some point.

[DarkSky]

EC weather summary:

107 
AWCN11 CWTO 061622
UPDATED WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12:22 P.M. EDT SATURDAY 6 SEPTEMBER 2014.

ON FRIDAY THE 5TH OF SEPTEMBER A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGH HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WAS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RECEIVED. STORM DAMAGE SURVEY CREWS ARE
INVESTIGATING REPORTS IN THE LONDON AND ORILLIA AREAS TODAY. THIS
BULLETIN WILL BE UPDATED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE REPORTS.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EVENT INFORMATION RECEIVED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA AS OF 11 A.M. SATURDAY.

LOCATION           EVENT DESCRIPTION

ORILLIA            28 MILLIMETRE DIAMETRE HAIL AT 2 P.M. FRIDAY
COOKSTOWN          20 MILLIMETRE DIAMETRE HAIL AT 8 P.M. FRIDAY

ORILLIA NORTH      TREES DOWN AND POWER POLES DOWN
CHRISTIAN ISLAND   MATURE TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN
SIX MILE LAKE      MATURE TREES DOWN
HUNGRY ROAD        MATURE TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN
ETHEL              MATURE TREES DOWN, BARN AND HOUSE DAMAGE
LONDON             REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE

ST. THOMAS         124.2 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN TO 10 P.M. FRIDAY
BALACLAVA          48.2  MILLIMETRES OF RAIN TO 11 P.M. FRIDAY
GRAND BEND         89    MILLIMETRES OF RAIN TO 4 A.M. SATURDAY
EXETER             62    MILLIMETRES OF RAIN TO 6 A.M. SATURDAY
MILVERTON          82    MILLIMETRES OF RAIN TO 8 A.M. SATURDAY
LONDON AIRPORT     53    MILLIMETRES OF RAIN TO 8 A.M. SATURDAY
WATERLOO AIRPORT   50.8  MILLIMETRES OF RAIN TO 8 A.M. SATURDAY
HAMILTON AIRPORT   42    MILLIMETRES OF RAIN TO 8 A.M. SATURDAY
TILLSONBURG        73.8  MILLIMETRES OF RAIN TO 9 A.M. SATURDAY
FURGUS             76.4  MILLIMETRES OF RAIN TO 9 A.M. SATURDAY
BARRIE LANDFILL    42.9  MILLIMETRES OF RAIN TO 9 A.M. SATURDAY

WINDSOR AIRPORT    93 KILOMETRE PER HOUR WIND GUST AT 8 P.M. FRIDAY
LAGOON CITY        85 KILOMETRE PER HOUR WIND GUST AT 7 P.M. FRIDAY

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS SUMMARY MAY CONTAIN PRELIMINARY OR UNOFFICIAL
INFORMATION AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A COMPLETE OR FINAL REPORT.

END/OSPC