Ontario Storms Site!  

Go Back   Ontario Storms Site! > Ontario Storms Forums > The Truck Stop: Storm Talk & Chit-Chat

The Truck Stop: Storm Talk & Chit-Chat General talk on past, current, and future storms - all talk about UPCOMING storms goes here

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #21  
Old 06-22-2010, 02:52 PM
Derecho's Avatar
Derecho Derecho is offline
Rank: F1 Tornado Chaser
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Region of Waterloo, ON
Posts: 1,083
Thanks: 103
Thanked 245 Times in 178 Posts
Default Re: Tuesday/ Wednesday Of this week. Hopefully.

Quote:
Originally Posted by davefootball123 View Post
ya. And derecho what do you think. Do you think solid or broken line with some supercells or do you think solid line causing wind damage with supercells out front. According to the spc 45% is mdt risk on a day 2 outlook.
Looks like a derecho will come through sometime in the morning, then late Wednesday a second line of storms will push through with the cold front.

If the morning convection slows down and doesn't clear out of southern Ontario in time, we'll be screwed by cloud cover preventing instability for the storms later in the day.

As for a tornado threat, I don't see why not. But, looks like the SPC is thinking tornadoes will be limited to the initial development back in Chicagoland.

NAM is indicating high EHI 0-1km values tomorrow from the start of the day to about London. Then, the values fluctuate through most of tornado then reappear along the Lake Erie shoreline. We'll have to wait and see what happens. I'll have a look at SREF today.
__________________
Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario
All Ontario tornadoes:
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 06-22-2010, 02:58 PM
davefootball123's Avatar
davefootball123 davefootball123 is offline
Rank: Supercell Chaser
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Hamilton
Posts: 747
Thanks: 49
Thanked 103 Times in 81 Posts
Default Re: Tuesday/ Wednesday Of this week. Hopefully.

I hope the morning convection doesnt slow down. And the morning convection what time are we talking about
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 06-22-2010, 04:16 PM
Derecho's Avatar
Derecho Derecho is offline
Rank: F1 Tornado Chaser
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Region of Waterloo, ON
Posts: 1,083
Thanks: 103
Thanked 245 Times in 178 Posts
Default Re: Tuesday/ Wednesday Of this week. Hopefully.

Quote:
Originally Posted by davefootball123 View Post
I hope the morning convection doesnt slow down. And the morning convection what time are we talking about
13z... ish.

Sometime after 9am by the looks of it
__________________
Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario
All Ontario tornadoes:
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

Last edited by Derecho; 06-22-2010 at 04:34 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 06-22-2010, 05:01 PM
Storm Chaser's Avatar
Storm Chaser Storm Chaser is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hamilton, ON
Posts: 171
Thanks: 7
Thanked 51 Times in 29 Posts
Default Re: Tuesday/ Wednesday Of this week. Hopefully.

Code:
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SE WI...NE/NCNTRL
   IL...EXTREME NRN IND...MUCH OF LOWER MI AND EXTREME NW OH...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN NEW
   ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EJECTION AND AMPLIFICATION
   OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS WILL
   TRACK FROM PARTS OF IA EWD ALONG A NWD DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO
   MI/SWRN ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
   SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY.  
   
   ...UPPER MS VLY INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
   ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER WILL AFFECT A CORRIDOR
   FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND
   WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
   
   FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE THE NOCTURNAL MCS/POSSIBLE DERECHO
   EXPECTED TO ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY.  THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRACKING
   EWD ACROSS LAKE MI AND INTO AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI DURING
   THE MORNING THEN SWRN ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS
   DOWNSTREAM WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER IN WAKE OF TODAY/S DEPARTING
   IMPULSE...AT LEAST AS FAR N AS SRN LOWER MI. AS A RESULT...THERE IS
   SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DAMAGING WIND RISKS
   DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
   AN INITIAL WEAKENING TREND OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY
   LESS UNSTABLE REGIME OVER THE CNTRL/LOWER GREAT LAKES.  
   
   AFTERNOON ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON THE 30-60 METER HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE. THERE IS MEDIUM TO
   HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AIR MASS WILL RECOVER OVER PARTS OF UPPER
   MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH AN EXTENSIVE ZONE OF
   LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS ANTICIPATED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
   LOW/COLD FRONT.  STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN WAKE OF
   DISSOLVING MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL BOOST MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG AND
   NEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM SRN WI/NRN IL BY MID-AFTERNOON. 
   VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT STRONG
   SPEED SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL PROFILES WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.  ACTIVITY WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER MCS BY EVENING...TRACKING EWD
   ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND WITH HIGH WINDS.  ACTIVITY MAY
   EVENTUALLY REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
   12Z THURSDAY WITH RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
   RECOVERS RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.

Last edited by DarkSky; 06-22-2010 at 06:19 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 06-22-2010, 05:08 PM
Smokin Joe Smokin Joe is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Bradford, ON
Posts: 238
Thanks: 94
Thanked 38 Times in 27 Posts
Default Re: Tuesday/ Wednesday Of this week. Hopefully.

Code:
ACCN10 CWTO 221951
Convective weather forecast for the province of Ontario
Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region
At 3:51 PM EDT Tuesday 22 June 2010.
This forecast is issued at 4 AM and 4.30 PM daily between May 1
And September 30.

Note:  this is not a severe weather watch warning or special weather
       Statement.

Discussion of thunderstorm potential.


Tonight..Isolated non-severe thunderstorms over northwestern..
Northern and Eastern Ontario this evening.

Wednesday..There is slight risk of severe thunderstorms over 
Southwestern Ontario late Wednesday morning and a moderate risk of 
more widespread severe thunderstorms over Southern Ontario in the 
late afternoon and early evening.  The main threats from the morning 
storms are damaging winds and heavy downpours.  The main threats
From the late day storms are damaging winds..Large hail and isolated 
tornadoes. Torrential downpours giving very heavy rainfall amounts 
are also a threat.
     Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are likely over Northern
Ontario in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday..Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible over
Eastern Ontario in the morning. Otherwise no thunderstorms are 
expected in Ontario.

A severe thunderstorm is defined as having one or more of the 
following

 - wind gusts of 90 km/h or greater.
 - hail of 2 centimetres diameter or greater.
 - rainfall rate greater than 50 millimetres in 1 hour or less.
 - tornadoes

END/OSPC

Last edited by DarkSky; 06-22-2010 at 06:20 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 06-22-2010, 05:42 PM
davefootball123's Avatar
davefootball123 davefootball123 is offline
Rank: Supercell Chaser
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Hamilton
Posts: 747
Thanks: 49
Thanked 103 Times in 81 Posts
Default Re: Tuesday/ Wednesday Of this week. Hopefully.

I hope we get some dandys. I want to ask you guys. Do you think most souther ontarioans will get storms.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 06-22-2010, 05:55 PM
Derecho's Avatar
Derecho Derecho is offline
Rank: F1 Tornado Chaser
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Region of Waterloo, ON
Posts: 1,083
Thanks: 103
Thanked 245 Times in 178 Posts
Default Re: Tuesday/ Wednesday Of this week. Hopefully.

Quote:
Originally Posted by davefootball123 View Post
I hope we get some dandys. I want to ask you guys. Do you think most souther ontarioans will get storms.
Looks like it has the potential to become a high impact event, especially considering there could be multiple rounds of severe weather.

It feels like Christmas!!

WEDNESDAY..THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A MODERATE RISK OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE MORNING
STORMS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THE LATE DAY STORMS ARE DAMAGING WINDS..LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS GIVING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE ALSO A THREAT.
__________________
Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario
All Ontario tornadoes:
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 06-22-2010, 06:03 PM
Storm Chaser's Avatar
Storm Chaser Storm Chaser is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hamilton, ON
Posts: 171
Thanks: 7
Thanked 51 Times in 29 Posts
Default Re: Tuesday/ Wednesday Of this week. Hopefully.

Wednesday..There is slight risk of severe thunderstorms over
Southwestern Ontario late Wednesday morning and a moderate risk of
more widespread severe thunderstorms over Southern Ontario in the
late afternoon and early evening. The main threats from the morning
storms are damaging winds and heavy downpours. The main threats
From the late day storms are damaging winds..Large hail and isolated
tornadoes. Torrential downpours giving very heavy rainfall amounts
are also a threat.
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are likely over Northern
Ontario in the afternoon and evening.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 06-22-2010, 06:20 PM
Raedwulf Raedwulf is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Oshawa
Posts: 166
Thanks: 0
Thanked 10 Times in 7 Posts
Default Re: Tuesday/ Wednesday Of this week. Hopefully.

Hey guys, I am new here ;-)! I'm so glad to see this forum. I have been fascinated and ABSOLUTELY BLOWN AWAY by severe weather..ESPECIALLY Mesocyclones. I took tomorrow off from work to track every bit of this potential brute.

I have a good feeling. The risk seems only to grow as well. So thus far, from even three days ago it's in our favor.

Hopefully I will have pictures and radar to post up tomorrow if anything happens.
Bring on the teeth ;-)
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 06-22-2010, 06:50 PM
davefootball123's Avatar
davefootball123 davefootball123 is offline
Rank: Supercell Chaser
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Hamilton
Posts: 747
Thanks: 49
Thanked 103 Times in 81 Posts
Default Re: Tuesday/ Wednesday Of this week. Hopefully.

Hey guys just to let you know i will be can warn spotting out of my home after my exams. Im going to take pics and have my weather radio on hand. Lets just hope this whole thing materializes and we get a mcs or derecho and some supercells during the day. that way everyone will get storms
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

PICTURE OF THE MOMENT - Photo by: Itchy (Apr.12, 2014, London, ON)


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:01 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
All original material copyright OntarioStorms.com, all 3rd party material copyrights held by original publisher