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  #1  
Old 06-16-2010, 02:08 PM
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Default Friday/Saturday: Southern Ontario

It's most concerning that we are possibly back in the trend of severe weather forming around Lake Michigan in the afternoon, then the remnant rains pass over S ONT overnight, then the storms redevelop the next day over New England.

Friday looks like this may be the outcome. There is a good risk of severe weather around Lake Michigan, then late in the evening through overnight it'll pass over us, then possibly redevelop Saturday over New England.

It's going to be a real torch on Friday, 30C and sunny in most places, hopefully we'll bank enough instability for some overnight action.

Isolated thunderstorms are appearing likely on Saturday, possibly lake breeze convergence related, and we all know what that means! (weak tornado somewhere?)

I'll keep my fingers crossed. Will update tomorrow once we have a better picture of the weekend threat.
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Old 06-16-2010, 08:37 PM
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Default Re: Friday/Saturday: Southern Ontario

Well said. Lets keep our fingers crossed
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Old 06-17-2010, 10:25 AM
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Default Re: Friday/Saturday: Southern Ontario

I like what I see on the day3 outlook this morning but in the text it says if I understand right that the western part of the slight risk area is favored at this point which would mean we may get dissapointed but I sure like to see that green circle over a good chunk of s-ont!
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Old 06-17-2010, 12:04 PM
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Default Re: Friday/Saturday: Southern Ontario

The one day this week I'm working 3pm-3am. ... Well, hopefully Serge will get a storm, I'd hate for Canadian weather to disappoint him
Saturday:
Code:
 
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDWEST...
   BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/50 KTS OF 500 MB FLOW WILL
   SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AMID A VERY MOIST AIR
   MASS.  HEATING AND ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO AT LEAST IND/IL.  RELATIVELY COOL
   MID-LEVELS AND MODESTLY FAST FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS.  MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE ERN
   EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE MORE WESTERN SOLUTIONS OF THE
   NAM/ECMWF PREFERRED.
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Old 06-17-2010, 03:02 PM
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Default Re: Friday/Saturday: Southern Ontario

I just saw a graphic on the weather network for sat. that shows the bruce peninsula and north of lake huron as the severe potential areas.....and all of southern/southwestern ontario in the non-severe....

i don't know who to believe......it's always wait and see i guess....
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Old 06-17-2010, 03:48 PM
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Default Re: Friday/Saturday: Southern Ontario

If a derecho develops tonight across the Midwest, Friday may bring a better severe chance for southern Ontario, but may squash our Saturday chances.
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Old 06-17-2010, 04:30 PM
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Default Re: Friday/Saturday: Southern Ontario

Hopefully we will get storms both days
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Old 06-17-2010, 04:54 PM
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Default Re: Friday/Saturday: Southern Ontario

Looks like ec i saying slight risk
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Old 06-18-2010, 09:10 AM
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Default Re: Friday/Saturday: Southern Ontario

Quote:
Originally Posted by Derecho View Post
The one day this week I'm working 3pm-3am. ... Well, hopefully Serge will get a storm, I'd hate for Canadian weather to disappoint him
Lol, no worry ! I am here until the 29th of July In France, it's cold and it's raining. I will be happy with a small storm !

There are some storms in the USA. I think tomorrow/this night we will have some "instability". I have a good view from my residence (I can see the lake). I hope "to have" some photos.

I see a "Tornado Watch" in the central Indiana this morning. (http://www.weather.gov/)

Good morning.
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Old 06-18-2010, 12:05 PM
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Default Re: Friday/Saturday: Southern Ontario

Is the front going to pass too early for things to really heat up tomorrow? I know that we will still have storms but will they be strong? I was going to drive somewhere and i'm wondering if there is a better chance for severe with the storms ahead of the front even if they happen at 10-11am or will the storms along the front be stronger because it may be warmer by then Seems everyone has chance of storms or rain in the morning and late in afternoon but some hourly forecasts for what they're worth have things clearing for good by 3. I don't know what direction to travel and am wondering what u all think?
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