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  #1  
Old 04-01-2011, 03:32 PM
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Default Monday Heavy rain...Mabye some storms

I was taking a look at the latest GFS run today and to my suprise we have a chance at some storms on monday most likley not severe but then again i cant predict the future. There appears to be some CAPE and with SFC temps into the high 50's and possibley low to even mid 60's near windsor who knows . Deffenitly rain with this system though. But its to early to tell anything at the moment lol
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Last edited by davefootball123; 04-01-2011 at 03:36 PM.
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Old 04-01-2011, 10:54 PM
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Default Re: Monday Heavy rain...Mabye some storms

Just checked the DTX expert forecast.
Based on all these scenarios, it appears likely some semblance of the warm sector ( 850 mb teens inthe lower teens ) will make it across the border Sunday night, with temperatures rising through thenight, even if we end up dealing more of an occlusion due to the influence of the cold lakes. If theGFS ends up being right, temperatures would be able to make it to 70 degrees on Monday, whichcoupled with surface dew pts surging into the lower 60s ( supported by the NAM ) would give us someconcerns for severe weather with capes of 500-1000+ j/kg and excellent wind shear/hodographs.
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Old 04-01-2011, 11:31 PM
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Default Re: Monday Heavy rain...Mabye some storms

I will be happy if I hear a rumble of thunder at this point. Anything else will be a bonus!
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Old 04-01-2011, 11:53 PM
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Default Re: Monday Heavy rain...Mabye some storms

Quote:
Originally Posted by davefootball123 View Post
Just checked the DTX expert forecast.
Based on all these scenarios, it appears likely some semblance of the warm sector ( 850 mb teens inthe lower teens ) will make it across the border Sunday night, with temperatures rising through thenight, even if we end up dealing more of an occlusion due to the influence of the cold lakes. If theGFS ends up being right, temperatures would be able to make it to 70 degrees on Monday, whichcoupled with surface dew pts surging into the lower 60s ( supported by the NAM ) would give us someconcerns for severe weather with capes of 500-1000+ j/kg and excellent wind shear/hodographs.
That's for SE Michigan. By the border, they mean the Indiana/Ohio/Michigan border. Any severe potential would be completely isolated to SEMI and extreme SW ON. Could be some isolated rumbles for the rest of us on Monday throughout the day and early evening.

If the 21z SREF verifies, Essex County could be facing an isolated tornado potential
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Old 04-02-2011, 12:14 AM
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Default Re: Monday Heavy rain...Mabye some storms

Ya thats but thats still in Ontario
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Old 04-02-2011, 11:21 PM
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Default Re: Monday Heavy rain...Mabye some storms

Just a quick update(will give a better one tomorrow). The 18z gfs which is the latest run as of 11:30pm when im writing this CAPE is AOA 750j/kg anywhere south of a line from st kitts to hamilton to brantford to london. Also checked the CMC model and it looks in agreement with other models about the possibility of storms. Closer to windsor the better like usual
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Old 04-03-2011, 04:59 PM
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Default Re: Monday Heavy rain...Mabye some storms

more chances to get better storms on monday yesss (: (: (: lol
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Old 04-03-2011, 10:04 PM
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Default Re: Monday Heavy rain...Mabye some storms

Grrr! I'm leaving when all the fun is about to begin!

Can someone in the Niagara area on here keep track of any thunderstorms we have? Just date/time/description. Cell tops would be nice. I keep track of all the storms in St. Kitts each year and haven't started up my list for this year yet. But I'm leaving for Varadero/Havana Monday night.

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Old 04-03-2011, 10:33 PM
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Default Re: Monday Heavy rain...Mabye some storms

Looks like warm frontal convection is fireing now too.
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Old 04-03-2011, 11:21 PM
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Default Re: Monday Heavy rain...Mabye some storms

Well that's goood yessss
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