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  #1  
Old 09-06-2010, 04:49 AM
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Default Tues.Sept.7.2010

Southern Ontario is under the risk of severe thunderstorms for Tuesday with a cold front associated with a low pressure system.

While not mentioned in the SPC day 2... there appears to be an apparent threat for a tornado according to the 21z SREF.

Code:
  ...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION/SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH A NARROW/MODESTLY MOIST WARM
   SECTOR ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE MEAGER WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE
   WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
   OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...MAINLY TUESDAY MID AFTERNOON
   THROUGH SUNSET.
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  #2  
Old 09-06-2010, 09:22 PM
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Default Re: Tues.Sept.7.2010

Looks like a couple broken lines of thunderstorms could develop late afternoon back towards Lake Huron then progress eastward through the evening. Highest parameters of severe thunderstorm development are between 5-8pm according to the SREF east of a line from Barrie to KW to Point Pelee.

Localized damaging wind threat by the looks of things, possibly small hail. Tornado parameters aren't as pronounced as last night, but perhaps an isolated brief tornado somewhere... especially in eastern Ontario.

My call is:
15% wind for much of southern Ontario.
5% hail from Lake Erie northeastward to eastern Ontario.
2% tornado in eastern Ontario.
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Old 09-07-2010, 02:13 PM
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Default Re: Tues.Sept.7.2010

Looks like some juicy stuff up northeast of Georgian Bay right now. Think I can see the edge of it out my office window in Downview.
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Old 09-07-2010, 02:22 PM
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Default Re: Tues.Sept.7.2010

Definitely turning into a nonevent pretty quickly
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Old 09-07-2010, 03:21 PM
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Default Tues.Sept.7.2010

I saw the anvils of the storms over Georgian bay just north of bradford about an hour ago I got excited for a minute but moving east and looks like nothin doin now up here. Oh well.....gecko where do u get that graphic?
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Old 09-07-2010, 03:50 PM
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Default Re: Tues.Sept.7.2010

Nav Canada flight planning page - select Echo Tops, Ontario Composite

http://www.flightplanning.navcanada....r&TypeDoc=html
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Old 09-07-2010, 07:13 PM
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Default Re: Tues.Sept.7.2010

outside my house 6:20 p.m.
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Old 09-07-2010, 08:10 PM
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Default Re: Tues.Sept.7.2010

Exactly. Anyone got the southeast covered? Some nice development over the lake & Oshawa way 7:30 p.m. Pics to come from the Loblaws parking lot here in Toronto east end (maybe not tonight tho - too much office work to do). That's what I saw, anyway. Glance at the radar shows very tip of Niagara may get some weather as well.
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Old 09-07-2010, 08:41 PM
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Default Re: Tues.Sept.7.2010

Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region
7:35 PM EDT Tuesday 07 September 2010
Severe thunderstorm warning for
Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region continued

Thunderstorms moving through ahead of a strong cold front may produce wind gusts of 100 km/h..Along with frequent lightning and torrential downpours.

A trained Canwarn spotter reported estimated 100 km/h gusts and a tree down near Port Colborne around 7.30 PM this evening.

These thunderstorms will move southeast of the border into Western New York state by 9.00 PM.
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Old 09-07-2010, 09:05 PM
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Default Re: Tues.Sept.7.2010

High above the horizon to the east there is a freakishly intense light show right now, so I just pulled up radar to see where the storm is... it's over Buffalo, NY currently, 77 miles/123km east of here.

Today paid off here afterall
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Last edited by Derecho; 09-07-2010 at 09:09 PM.
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