Official Jinx Thread Day 4-8 July 22-26

[Smokin Joe]

...DISCUSSION...

DOMINANT MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE ERN THIRD
OF THE NATION WILL RETROGRADE WWD THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRACKETED BY TROUGHING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST AND
INTENSIFYING TROUGH ACROSS ERN CANADA. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE
FLOW REGIME...MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ON D4 WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS OVER ERN MT...THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS
MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL CREST MEAN RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA ON
D5/D6 BEFORE DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. ON D7. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NERN STATES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES IN MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING/LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SEVERITY PRECLUDE DELINEATION OF A
SEVERE WEATHER AREA.

[obwan]

thursday is only the 21'st but here is what buffalo says;

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THEY ARE SLIM TO NONE. SFC RIDGE SHOULD BE
OVER OUR AREA WED...AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WARM
FRONTAL/MCS TYPE FEATURE BRUSHING BY US TO THE NORTH LATE WED
NT/EARLY THURS. WILL PLAY CHC POPS THAT PERIOD NORTH COUNTRY
ONLY...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE WESTERN NY SOLIDLY IN WARM AND CAPPED
AIRMASS BY MIDDAY THURS SO WILL HAVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRY. GFS
AND NAM BEGIN TO LEAN A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THURS NT SO CHC POPS
LATE.

00Z GFS AND TO SOME DEGREE THE CMC MODEL...ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH FROPA ON FRI AND ALLOWS FOR A PUSH OF DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR TO WORK SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATER SAT AND SUN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 10C. WILL NOT BUY INTO THIS YET...BUT DID
NUDGE TEMPS DOWN JUST A COUPLE DEG FOR SAT/SUN AT THIS STAGE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT SLGT CHC IN FOR BOTH DAYS...TRENDING SRN TIER A BIT
HIGHER. CHC POPS MONDAY AS SOME SORT OF COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE IN VICINITY. STILL SIGNS OF COOLER MORE COMFORTABLE WX EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGE BUCKLES.