Thursday, August 16th Threat

[harrisale]

Seems as though tomorrow we may see a system similar to what is moving through MN right now. Although it may appear late in the evening. Hopefully the line will arrive while there's still some daylight!

[harrisale]

Any idea what to make of the system over MI right now? (11:00am)

EDIT: Seems like an advection system ahead of the warm front. How do you think this will affect activity along the cold front later today?

[davefootball123]

Parts of the Michigan system may intensify as the day progresses with new development likely as well. Best threat should be in areas of southwestern Ontario where I have placed a Slight Risk due to those areas having a lot more instability than areas further east...as indicated by the RAP and NAM. Decent shear and llj could lead to a wind damage threat...becoming more isolated with eastward extent.

http://www.southernontariochasing.ca...veoutlook.html

[davefootball123]

Seems like convective debris and rain will kill this threat off...still a marginal risk at severe but instability will likely be limited.

[Anspray]

What happened to the post from the person who claimed SPC had today all wrong for SW ON? Oh SPC has it all wrong SW ON going to get hammered.....pfft

[SlideShowBob]

a few rumbles of thunder and a short downburst here in Barrie....garden variety type (5:30 p.m. local)

[davefootball123]

Originally Posted by Anspray

What happened to the post from the person who claimed SPC had today all wrong for SW ON? Oh SPC has it all wrong SW ON going to get hammered.....pfft

Convective debris...and lack of pre frontal shear ruined most of the potential today...models were indicating a decent squall line...that went down the drain fast today.

[Raedwulf]

lmao. I remember getting upset last year because I wasted so much energy on tracking nothing. So I said well if there is a storm I will know it and check the radar once in a blue moon. Good thing because I would have wasted a whole bunch of energy on more nothing this year. I thought that was a bad year, even the year before that was slow. The last three years have been progressively slower, this year being by far the slowest. I've yet to see anything more than a mediocre thunder shower. The praries have been taking all the action again.

Edit: Reading what I just typed gave me a glimmer of hope - "we're due"

[davefootball123]

Originally Posted by Raedwulf

lmao. I remember getting upset last year because I wasted so much energy on tracking nothing. So I said well if there is a storm I will know it and check the radar once in a blue moon. Good thing because I would have wasted a whole bunch of energy on more nothing this year. I thought that was a bad year, even the year before that was slow. The last three years have been progressively slower, this year being by far the slowest. I've yet to see anything more than a mediocre thunder shower. The praries have been taking all the action again.

Edit: Reading what I just typed gave me a glimmer of hope - "we're due"

2011 was a great season. Above average tornado count, Ontario's first F3 since 96, a few notable outbreaks, lots of tornado warnings. Quite a few supercells. In Hamilton, it was one of the better seasons that I can remember.

[harrisale]

Gassed up the car the night before but never made it out the door. Oh well. All part of the game, right?

Still hoping for that supercell.