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Old 07-20-2010, 01:42 PM
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Derecho Derecho is offline
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Default JUL.23, 2010 - Storm discussion, radar images

Latest weather model runs indicate the possibility for severe weather to affect southern Ontario early this weekend. It's still four days out, but it looks as though several ingredients may come into play to produce some significant weather somewhere in the province ahead of a cold front.

Models are in some agreement for this potential, IE several of them indicate pretty much the same thing, so it's looking at least hopeful. Timing of it all is the biggest factor. Right now, models align in almost perfect set up for the region, but things could rapidly change at a moments notice.

There is indications of a prime theta-e ridge pushing through southern Ontario Friday. Also, an ejection of ripe moist air into the southern Ontario region is also being indicated.

Will not speculate right now on conditions that could be expected. The day three tomorrow should give a good picture at what is possible. Any number of factors could ruin this potential, such as severe weather in the Midwest/NRN Plains developing in the wrong region, or moving to quickly or slowly, or busting, or cloud cover.

One thing to note: models indicated severe weather potential for today around SW ON/SW MI for the last few days. Last night, models dropped the risk. Even the Ohio Valley which looked primed for severe weather was dropped out of the risk by models barely without a moments notice.
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