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View Poll Results: How many ON tornadoes in 2012?
0 0 0%
1-6 1 4.76%
7-13 6 28.57%
14-20 6 28.57%
21-27 7 33.33%
27-34 0 0%
34+ 1 4.76%
Voters: 21. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 01-30-2012, 12:26 AM
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Default Predict the Number of Tornadoes in 2012

As the title suggests...what's your prediction for the number of confirmed tornadoes in Ontario during the 2012 storm season?

I'm going with 14-20...slightly above average which ranges from 11-14 in ON.
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  #2  
Old 01-30-2012, 08:10 AM
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Default Re: Predict the Number of Tornadoes in 2012

I'm gonna go with 21-27.
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  #3  
Old 01-30-2012, 02:52 PM
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Default Re: Predict the Number of Tornadoes in 2012

7-13. It'll be a dry year. (totally just guessing here of course )
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  #4  
Old 01-31-2012, 02:19 AM
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Default Re: Predict the Number of Tornadoes in 2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkSky View Post
7-13. It'll be a dry year. (totally just guessing here of course )
If this pattern keeps up it will be, lol. Also noticed I messed up the latter half of the count there, oops
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:21 AM
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Default Re: Predict the Number of Tornadoes in 2012

Possibly less tornados, more intensity:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8241W620120305

(Reuters) - When at least 80 tornadoes rampaged across the United States, from the Midwest to the Gulf of Mexico, last Friday, it was more than is typically observed during the entire month of March, tracking firm AccuWeather.com reported on Monday.

According to some climate scientists, such earlier-than-normal outbreaks of tornadoes, which typically peak in the spring, will become the norm as the planet warms.

...

The scientific challenge is this: the two conditions necessary to spawn a twister are expected to be affected in opposite ways. A warmer climate will likely boost the intensity of thunderstorms but could dampen wind shear, the increase of wind speed at higher altitudes, researchers say.

Tomorrow's thunderstorms will pack a bigger wallop, but may strike less frequently than they have historically, explained Del Genio.

"As we go to a warmer atmosphere, storms - which transfer energy from one region to another - somehow figure out how to do that more efficiently," he said. As a result, thunderstorms transfer more energy per outbreak, and so have to make such transfers less often.

In a 2011 paper, Del Genio calculated that, "especially in the central and eastern United States, we can expect a few more days per month with conditions favorable to severe thunderstorm occurrence" by the latter part of this century if the global climate grows warmer.

Indeed, the world has been experiencing more violent storms since 1970, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in its most recent assessment.

...
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  #6  
Old 03-10-2012, 09:59 AM
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Default Re: Predict the Number of Tornadoes in 2012

I'm thinking 21-27 range....maybe i'm hoping...

I do like how warm it's going to get early...from what I've read, then flip flop with some cool shots of air for late spring early summer.

The accuweather spring outlook suggests more severe weather in the ohio valley area, which may get us close enough to the action to catch a few more events, especially in the extreme sw.

Also....I just think we're due....I've been paying attention since mid '09, and it seems that there were long streches of no action since then, while when I was a kid and not really paying attention, it seemed like there were more storms...

The law of averages has to play out, i think this could be our time with this bizarre warmth we're seeing.

Bring it on!!
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  #7  
Old 03-10-2012, 07:24 PM
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Default Re: Predict the Number of Tornadoes in 2012

I'll go with slightly more than last year, maybe pushing 20 in the province.
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Old 03-11-2012, 06:47 PM
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Default Re: Predict the Number of Tornadoes in 2012

1-6 worst year ever.
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  #9  
Old 03-11-2012, 07:47 PM
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Default Re: Predict the Number of Tornadoes in 2012

21 to 27...is it wrong to "wish" more storms? I'm being prudent as well...perhaps more intense storms, like last August.
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Old 03-11-2012, 07:50 PM
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Default Re: Predict the Number of Tornadoes in 2012

Plus, I'm moving up to Barrie next month...Other than a few storms, I'm not impressed with Burlington's ability to defuse/re-direct/deflect storm systems lately...lol
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