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Old 05-07-2010, 06:49 AM
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Default Severe Tstorms Friday Pt. 2

The other thread is almost ten pages long, and mostly discussion about Wednesday's severe weather. Sorry if this is breaking rules, feel free to merge if needed.

Today, there is a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms from Windsor to Peterborough, according to the SPC. Damaging winds oif 90kmh, small hail, and heavy rain appear to be the main threat, with perhaps an isolated tornado in the southwest or along the Lake Erie Shoreline this afternoon.

It's going to be cold and windy today across much of southern Ontario. Weather model runs show 40-50F DP's from Woodstock northward. Guess we'll have to wait and see what happens, or if we're dropped from the Slight risk at 13z or 1630z.

From Environment Canada:
TODAY AND TONIGHT..SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TO THE DUNDALK HIGHLANDS AND GOLDEN HORSESHOE IN THE
EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
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Old 05-07-2010, 12:05 PM
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Default Re: Severe Tstorms Friday Pt. 2

According the the latest RUC EH1 0-1/03-km model runs, looks like a significant tornado potential may be unfolding across Ohio today... perhaps any storm that develops across Essex-Kent-Lambton-Middlesex-Elgin counties could rotate.

SWS from EC:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
AND THEY WILL SOAK THE DISTRICT TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A RISK
THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO MAY BECOME SEVERE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST IN THE
WINDSOR TO CHATHAM AREA AND ADJACENT WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST.
CLAIR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY AS
REQUIRED.

Valid 22z:
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Last edited by Derecho; 05-07-2010 at 12:19 PM.
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Old 05-07-2010, 12:23 PM
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Default Re: Severe Tstorms Friday Pt. 2

Hm.... looks a bit far south.

I was hoping to get at least something today judging from what the forecasts on TV were saying early this morning, but everything heading this way seems to be dissipating before it gets here. 'Probably only have rain.
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Old 05-07-2010, 12:47 PM
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Default Re: Severe Tstorms Friday Pt. 2

I heard a crack of thunder about 15 minutes ago. What is moving through is just the 'warm' front the best chance will be this afternoon/eve as the surface low approaches.

:fingers crossed:
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Old 05-07-2010, 02:19 PM
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Default Re: Severe Tstorms Friday Pt. 2

Hoping I get a photogenic storm today and it doesn't have to be severe. We've had about 2.5 inches of rain in the last few days and the grass is really green!
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Old 05-07-2010, 02:34 PM
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Default Re: Severe Tstorms Friday Pt. 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by ontariolightning View Post
Hoping I get a photogenic storm today and it doesn't have to be severe. We've had about 2.5 inches of rain in the last few days and the grass is really green!
SPC has Wallaceburg on the northern end of the tornado watch requirement bubble.
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Last edited by Derecho; 05-07-2010 at 03:03 PM.
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Old 05-07-2010, 02:47 PM
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Default Re: Severe Tstorms Friday Pt. 2

The 19z run of the RUC actually brings some 50-60F dewpoints into southern Ontario, mostly south of a line from Goderich to Toronto between 21z and 01z. It's a step up from the 40-50F from earlier runs!

EDIT: Across the river from Windsor

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
LAKE ERIE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
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Last edited by Derecho; 05-07-2010 at 03:04 PM.
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Old 05-07-2010, 03:10 PM
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Default Re: Severe Tstorms Friday Pt. 2

yep, and it says storm motion to the NE at 50 mph?, sounds better than an Eastward motion
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Old 05-07-2010, 03:48 PM
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Default Re: Severe Tstorms Friday Pt. 2

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:16 PM EDT FRIDAY 7 MAY 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ARE
INTENSIFYING AND MAY REACH THE BORDER NEAR 6.00 PM. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED.

THERE IS ALSO A LESSER THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO..AND IF
THIS THREAT INCREASES A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED.
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Old 05-07-2010, 06:31 PM
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Default Re: Severe Tstorms Friday Pt. 2

We're having a tstorm right now. It's 7C out. Black sky, lots of thunder.

It's cool, because the base clouds are moving west, but the storm is moving northeast.

EDIT: Three CG lightning bolts in the last five minutes just to the west of my house. It's pouring rain, almost wish there would be some small hail.
EDIT EDIT: Literally lightning every minute right now. :thumbs up:
EDIT EDIT EDIT: Buffalo radar has measured 58 lightning strikes in the last 30 minutes. We just had a big flash of lightning right over the house.
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Last edited by Derecho; 05-07-2010 at 06:44 PM.
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