June 8 - active day for Southern & Eastern Ontario

[fitzcalvin]

Pretty interesting day lining up for southern and eastern Ontario today. The latest NAM run for forecast time 5:00 pm today for my location here near Ottawa looks like this:

CAPE: ~3500 J/kg
Lifted index: -10
Cap: -150
Energy helicity: 9
Helicity: 300

Nasty-looking instability and lift, but doesn't look like there's going to be enough speed or directional shear to support rotation or super-big hail. My guess would be more along the lines of straight-line winds and moderate hail, along with some pretty spectacular looking skies. Get the cameras ready, but I'd be surprised to see a heckuva lot of rotation out of this unless the shear environment changes.

[DarkSky]

Wow, that's GREAT lift and cape. Temps are showing 30C right now without the humidity.

[fitzcalvin]

Just came in from outside (in Kanata) and it's unholy hot and humid. Latest run of NAM for 5:00 pm calls for a stronger cap than forecast earlier today, but CAPE remains impressive (3000 - 4000) and the lift seems to be holding. Be interesting to see if the arrival of the line later this afternoon is enough to pop the cork. If we'd had just a little bit more shear, I'd have expected to see Reed Timmer over here at some point today.

[Derecho]

It's so hot I can barely move. I think I'm going to cab to work. It's 32C right now, but feels like 43C in Waterloo.

Also, convection firing over Michigan, Lake Huron, and Georgian Bay.

[davefootball123]

Me anStorm chaser were biking looking for damage...Saw some but man was it hot. Speaking of damage in my backyard a huge part of a maple tree was sheard off and it flattend my neighbours shead took down an elictrical and teleophone like and almost crushed my car. Also a bunch of smaller branches in my yard with small branches littering my street and the street next to me.

[DarkSky]

293  WWCN11 CWTO 081936
 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
 ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
 AT 3:36 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 8 JUNE 2011.
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
 WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
 =NEW= COBOURG - COLBORNE - WESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY
 =NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE WEST - EASTERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY
 =NEW= STIRLING - TWEED - MADOC
 =NEW= PLEVNA - SHARBOT LAKE - WESTERN LANARK COUNTY
       LINDSAY - SOUTHERN KAWARTHA LAKES
       PETERBOROUGH CITY - LAKEFIELD - SOUTHERN PETERBOROUGH COUNTY
       APSLEY - WOODVIEW - NORTHERN PETERBOROUGH COUNTY
       KALADAR - BANNOCKBURN - BON ECHO PARK.

      FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS UNTIL 4.30 PM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
       IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THE AREA. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
       HAIL UP TO 4 CM, WIND GUSTS TO 120 KM/H AND TORRENTIAL
       DOWNPOURS UP TO 50 MM IN HALF AN HOUR.

      REMEMBER THAT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE
       TORNADOES.

      MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
       PRECAUTIONS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
       NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION
       UXBRIDGE - BEAVERTON - NORTHERN DURHAM REGION
       DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
       PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
       BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
       CITY OF OTTAWA
       GATINEAU
       PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
       SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE.

      THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
       THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY
       RAINFALL..MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED
       BULLETINS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 WATCHES/WARNINGS ENDED FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ENDED FOR:
       NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION
       UXBRIDGE - BEAVERTON - NORTHERN DURHAM REGION
       FENELON FALLS - BALSAM LAKE PARK - NORTHERN KAWARTHA LAKES
       BANCROFT - HASTINGS HIGHLANDS - DENBIGH.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 ==DISCUSSION==
 AT 3 PM RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SCATTERED SEVERE AND NON SEVERE
 THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST SOUTH OF LAKE SIMCOE TO VICINITY OF BANCROFT
 AND NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LINE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT
 60 KM/H. CONDITIONS AROUND AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
 ARE FAVOURABLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST AND BECOME SEVERE
 WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, WIND GUSTS TO 100 KM/H AND TORRENTIAL
 DOWNPOURS UP TO 50 MM IN HALF AN HOUR.


REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

END/OSPC

[Nagii]

I wonder how organized this incoming cell will remain :/