Sunday August 5th threat

[harrisale]

SPC currently has a good portion of southern Ontario within the Day 4 severe area (static image):

 ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   ...PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PERSISTENT BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE
   CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...MAY TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TO
   NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
    FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
   SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTING ACROSS
   QUEBEC.  CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT THE  KINEMATIC
   AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY EXTREME TO
   THE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER...SEASONABLY HIGH
   MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW STRENGTHENING
   TO 30+ KT...STILL SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
   ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.
   
   THEREAFTER...INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SPREAD AMONG THE
   MODELS CONCERNING UPPER FLOW DEVELOPMENTS INCREASES...AND
   PREDICTABILITY DECREASES.
   
   ..KERR.. 08/02/2012

Decent instability, shear is present, PLENTY of moisture.

Certainly worth keeping an eye on.

[Storm Chaser]

Im liking Sunday for an extensive squall line crossing all of Southern and Central Ontario through the morning, afternoon, and evening in Eastern Ontario.

[qcstorm]

Latest NAM an GFS looking really impressive for Sunday. Everywhere is definitely going to get some strong storms, but I think the strongest storms along the squall will be in the over eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, where it looks like it would become fully evolved and matured. Winds will definitely be the greatest threat, especially as the line heads more and more east. Large hail will be possible everywhere, especially with the higher topped clouds, but best chances for this seem to be over southwestern ontario. Some localized flooding may occur over extreme eastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec. And there may even be the treat for an isolated tornado or two.

[seppi519]

yeah i agree the models are looking better and better for some good chase action, finally this season is starting to ramp up i didnt even need to chase the other day and got pics and video of a cold core funnels going over my house

[harrisale]

Of course the best chasing opportunity of the season has to occur on the weekend I go away.

Get some pics for me Id love to see what Im going to miss!

[davefootball123]

http://www.southernontariochasing.ca/sospc.html

Have my Day 2 and 3 outlooks up. May have to trim Western parts of the Day 3 Risk depending on the speed of the front.