Storm Threat: April 25-27.11

[DarkSky]

From weather.com :

Tuesday :



Wednesday:

[DarkSky]

Hopefully we can get lets of pics/vids up of any action. Unfortunately, with gas at $1.30+ a liter I won't be going to far.

[SlideShowBob]

Hopefully we don't have to go to far...but putting new batteries in cameras, flashlights, charging everything else...;-)

[benjaminblizzard]

Current NWS SPC Day 1 Outlook just posted:

...TN/OH VALLEYS INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES...
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL AND WARM MOIST AIR STREAMING NWD WILL HELP
FUELS STORMS IN THIS REGION WITH HAIL AND WIND LIKELY. SHEAR APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR
AS WELL.

Wednesday still looks much better, though.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT --
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT
THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.***

SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ATTM WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND THE ONGOING STORMS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING
ACROSS ERN AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE THE COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION COULD HAVE
EFFECTS ON TIMING/LOCATION OF LATER DAY STORMS AS WELL AS THE
QUALITY OF AIRMASS IN SOME AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT EARLY STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THROUGH THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME.

HOWEVER...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE AND AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVELY-COOLED AREAS...STORM REINTENSIFICATION AND NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100
KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS -- COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND -- DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE --
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE -- ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT -- WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

[obwan]

for wednesday

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE
VICINITY OF AR EARLY NNEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER
MS VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS -- WITH A ZONE BETWEEN THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIAN
CREST LIKELY TO SEE A WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD.

ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE -- ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT -- WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

[davefootball123]

Wednesday does look better. Warmer with better dp's and more
available CAPE. Shear and helecity are also favourable for isolated supercells. I will update my forecast later

[seppi519]

new batteries in my camera laptop and cell all charged up with backup power supply gonna hit the road soon hopefully today does it

[DarkSky]

SPC Day 1 for Apr.26

[benjaminblizzard]

Check out the most recent Day 2!

[DarkSky]

384 
 WOCN11 CWTO 261625
 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
 UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
 AT 12:25 PM EDT TUESDAY 26 APRIL 2011.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR..
 CITY OF TORONTO
 WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
 SARNIA - LAMBTON
 ELGIN
 LONDON - MIDDLESEX
 SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
 DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
 OXFORD - BRANT
 NIAGARA
 CITY OF HAMILTON
 HALTON - PEEL
 YORK - DURHAM
 HURON - PERTH
 WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
 DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
 GREY - BRUCE
 BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
 BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
 KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
 PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
 STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
 BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
 BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
 CITY OF OTTAWA
 GATINEAU
 PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
 CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
 SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
 PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
 HALIBURTON
 RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
 ALGONQUIN
 BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

..OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY..

---------------------------------------------------------------------
 ==DISCUSSION==
 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
 WILL TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.  A WARM FRONT
 ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS CROSSING SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO INTO
 NIAGARA THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT OCCASIONAL
 SHOWERS AND THE ODD THUNDERSTORM MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
 REGIONS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
 AND AREAS FARTHER EAST TONIGHT. FOR AREAS FROM SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO
 TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO, SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE
 STRONG AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES MAY BE
 REQUIRED.

ON WEDNESDAY, YET ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, BRINGING TOTAL RAINFALL
 AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 MILLIMETRES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. EMBEDDED
 THUNDERSTORMS COULD GIVE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE IS ALSO A
 THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF WET  WEATHER.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE INTENSITY AND TRACK
 OF THE SYSTEM AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED AS THE SITUATION  WARRANTS.

END/OSPC