August 24 -SW ON

[Smokin Joe]

Oh man....i was hoping for some storms to fire in the London to Windsor corridor in that soupy air they're saying 40-44 humidex. Like at 6-8pm. What are my odds? It's like a 6-800k trip depending on where I end up....if I wait till I see them on radar I'm too late.....as it stands now I can leave at 2 so ultimately I don't have to decide til then.....anyone else want to take a guess as to what happens tomorrow evening?

[obwan]

Things looking good for tomorrow.SW/W ontario will see some action early but they have the best chance for severe late afternoon early eve. Unfortunately, here in Niagara things look to show after daytime heating has wound down. On the plus side gusty SW winds may produce shear to keep things exciting.

Welcome back Anspray! we missed you during some of those SW storms last couple weeks.

[davefootball123]

Storm Potential looks to be in the GTA around 11pm tomorrow. 0-6km shear values of 40+kts throughout the area will be able to sustain updrafts a great ways east. Could see some damaging wind potential this way tomorrow night. SREF also has a little bit of tornado potential tomorrow. We will have to see. One thing is early day cloud cover. If it doest burn off then we are screwed

[DarkSky]

Wednesday is still looking pretty good:

[Derecho]

Really torn on this one. Clouds is the biggest concern, which has been screwing us over and over again, but it's nice to see the activity today in the Midwest didn't develop full scale so hopefully the cloud deck will be limited and will clear out quickly. If that can happen, we could get some good instability going and there doesn't look to be any lack of shear so if some storms can fire and stay discrete, it won't take much to get them rotating bringing a decent threat of damaging winds and large hail. Some models are showing initial supercells quickly merging into a large MCS traversing through SON in the mid to late evening. Guess we'll have to see how this plays out.

SREF is showing some pretty significant tornado ingredients, but I'm not buying that solution. SREF has been over-performing recently, but it's still nice to see sigtors over us since just because of the rarity. There still could be a tornado somewhere in the Great Lakes tomorrow.

Awaiting the new day one at 2am. I'm trying not to get excited because the latest NWS AFD's talk about how low confidence is right now on how tomorrow may develop.

[Raedwulf]

New outlook looks really promising. I work today though..hopefully I'll be done before anything happens

[stormy kid]

these storms will strech from thunderbay to windsor because of the cold front this might cause severe weaher tonight sweeeeeet!!!!! soo excited.

[Stormydude]

New day 1 risk gets better each time! 5% tornado and 30% wind and hail has moved east a bit.

[duruisso]

I everyone, I am wondering if anyone might be interested in connecting somewhere and go chasing in southern Ontario today... Conditions sure are looking good for severe weather. A friend working at EC just e-mailed me, it looks like could be a broken line of supercells, and with the wind fields involved, tornadoes are definitely possible. He estimate that storm motion will be from the west-southwest and kind of fast—60 to 70 km/h. If interested please let me know ASAP as I have to work my way up there from Kingston.

[davefootball123]

I only have my G1 lol. But thanks for the info on the supercells. I am thinking supercells initialy then they go linear