August 24 -SW ON

[Smokin Joe]

Current Day 3 from SPC

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF LOWER MI...FAR NRN
IL AND IND...AND NWRN OH...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND 70+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING WRN NEW ENGLAND BY THU
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MI AND NRN
IL DURING THE DAY...AND INTO NRN IND AND OH OVERNIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL AFFECT THE WRN AND CNTRL
STATES...WITH UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. TO THE E...A
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN
STATES...ALLOWING A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND POSSIBLY APPROACH THE FL STRAITS BY THE END OF THE DAY 3 PERIOD.


...NRN IL...MUCH OF LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NWRN OH...
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...DESPITE EFFECTS OF EARLY CONVECTION THANKS TO A CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR BY SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. BY
MIDDAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN
WI INTO NRN MI...INTENSIFYING WITH TIME. PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENTLY LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL TEND TO FAVOR
SUPERCELLS...AT LEAST INITIALLY...BUT SOME MORPHOLOGY INTO LINE
SEGMENTS OR BOWS MAY OCCUR WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES E.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BOTH BE LIKELY.

Season may end with a flurry now after all the waiting....i'll pass on the F3's through populated areas, but i'll take one in a field somewhere.....