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Old 11-18-2010, 10:19 PM
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Default Nov 24-26.10... Interesting scenario at our doorstep

I have deleted the original discussion as it is no longer relevant.

Mixed precip of rain and snow is forecast over the next two days. Nothing as excited as the original estimates of a major winter storm.
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Last edited by Derecho; 11-24-2010 at 12:35 PM.
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Old 11-19-2010, 03:49 PM
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Default Re: Possible Low Pressure Nov 24-26.10

By the looks of it I jinxed the forecast...

I was hoping there would be a general consistency within models with this low pressure system forecast... but today's model runs have nearly disintegrated the storm. On a side note, the GFS has increased precipitation amounts over much of southern Ontario... yay!

Next time I won't write a novel about one single amazing model run, I'll wait a few days cross referencing and such. I feel a little silly for getting so excited. But, it's not often models forecast bombogenesis over southern Ontario. The whole forecast I wrote in the original post is no longer relevant for the time being.
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Old 11-19-2010, 05:13 PM
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Default Re: Possible Low Pressure Nov 24-26.10

here's what nws buffalo says:

THE BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES ARE STILL IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
LIFTS THE MIDWEST SURFACE LOW NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS A MUCH WEAKER CIRCULATION EAST ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AND PA. THE ECMWF`S SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MILDER
AIR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE COLDER AIR SWEEPS IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ANY PCPN THAT IS IN
PLACE DURING THE MORNING WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BUT...IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY FOR ANY FIRM DETAILS
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWS ACCUMULATIONS. WILL WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THEIR DISCREPANCIES.

BOTH MODELS DO SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THIS TREND VERIFIES...WE MAY SEE
SEASON`S FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. STAY TUNED
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