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  #1  
Old 04-04-2011, 10:07 PM
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Default Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

I was taking a look once again at the latest GFS for next week particualrly monday and it looks great compared to the model runs leading up to these past storms. Although it is far away as it stand right now many areas in southern ontario could be looking at MLCAPE's over 1000j/kg with surface temps into the 60's with this next low pressure which looks to be fairly strong. This could mean a risk of thunderstorms and as it looks now. Lifted indices on the latest GFS indicate in the -4 to -6 range which is quite good(Liftied indicies in the negatives indicated unstable conditions and favorable lift for the development of thunderstorms). Temps in the upper level look quite cool which is usual for this time of year. Looks like there could be some hail and damaging winds if these storms do pan out. And you know the models IT IS A BIG IFFFFFFFFFFF. Just wanted to let you guys know.
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Last edited by davefootball123; 04-04-2011 at 10:12 PM.
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Old 04-05-2011, 12:45 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

Hope it pans out i'm ready for some action
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Old 04-05-2011, 04:35 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

I almost don't believe the latest long range GFS run... thought I was seeing things with 55F dewpoints all the way to Ottawa on Sunday
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Old 04-05-2011, 07:06 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

Hmm. SPC is seeing what im seeing. They have put a risk in for Day 6 sunday already. Have to keep an eye on this. I will post updated as much as possible
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Old 04-05-2011, 08:12 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

still lookin good...
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Old 04-05-2011, 08:36 PM
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Old 04-05-2011, 09:33 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

Well then.... Sorry i dont check to ther forums gosh...
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Old 04-06-2011, 04:48 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

87 hrs on the sigtor FWIW
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Last edited by Derecho; 04-06-2011 at 06:09 PM.
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Old 04-06-2011, 06:44 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

not looking as good on the GFS as it was. Still a risk but the better storms will be illinoio,ohio valley, southern michigan, mabye extreme southwest ontario. To early to make a call. We will have to see
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Old 04-07-2011, 06:58 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

New GFS is looking quite good CAPE around 1000j/kg with dewpoints into the mid to high 50's with surface temps into the 70's. CMC is also picking up a line of storms moving through here....Have to wait to see. Only problem is the time the front passes

Last edited by davefootball123; 04-07-2011 at 07:22 PM.
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Old 04-07-2011, 09:36 PM
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Default Re: Mabye Thunderstorms early next week.

As of right now it looks as the front should pass through monday morning. The CMC and GFS agree with a line of storms moving through Illinois,Michigan and into Ontario passing us then weakening. The SREF doesnt agree with much instability getting this far east north east with the MLCAPE of 1000j/kg reaching to about london. The GFS indicates MLCAPE up to 1000j/kg all the way up to about barrie and a little farther east, there will be more than ample shear with 0-6km efective shear of over 50kts. Since theses storms would hit us during the night we would be at the minimum for instability which sucks meaning that the storms will have to feed off of what there is up this way, at least we would get into the 70's during the day with points into the mid to high 50's which is great . Hopefully enough to keep a few strong ones going or at least some with some lightning. Its still early. But this system has the possibilty to produce are first strong storm(s) of the season.

Last edited by davefootball123; 04-07-2011 at 09:40 PM.
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