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  #1  
Old 07-12-2012, 09:53 PM
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Default Sunday July 15 Storm Risk

It seems likely, with up to 3000j/kg with the soaring daytime high in the mid thirties that daytime heating storms will go up on Sunday. If the lake breezes cooperate, some storms could get interesting. Also, heads up for Tuesday. A rather significant event may come into play.
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Old 07-13-2012, 03:07 PM
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Default Re: Sunday July 15 Storm Risk

Towers o' plenty around here.

Looks like a lake breeze or other boundary is producing a nearly stationary line of storms from Lake Ontario to Brantford with intense lightning being detected.
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Old 07-13-2012, 03:33 PM
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Default Re: Sunday July 15 Storm Risk

Code:
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:53 PM EDT FRIDAY 13 JULY 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON.

      MARBLE TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH A SLOW
      MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER HAMILTON. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO
      LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED.
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Old 07-13-2012, 06:16 PM
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Default Re: Sunday July 15 Storm Risk

I was so close but missed the best action today. Tomorrow a 5% has been issued so i hope to luck out better tomorrow and sunday. Tuesday continues to look very intriquing.
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Old 07-13-2012, 06:20 PM
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Default Re: Sunday July 15 Storm Risk

Sunday is looking promising for sure. Latest run showing solid 2000+ J/Kg Max CAPE for southern Ontario.

Will keep an eye on this.

Decent storm today with cloud tops hitting 45K at one point, CAPE was lower around 1500 J/Kg; so Sunday looks good
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Old 07-13-2012, 06:35 PM
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Default Re: Sunday July 15 Storm Risk

Radar indicated 2.00" hail today as well. Was watching from Guelph, stationary and just barely missed the action out to the west.
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Old 07-13-2012, 06:36 PM
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Default Re: Sunday July 15 Storm Risk

indeed, tops even broke 50k at times. Sunday will likely be a 5% like tomorrow. Tuesday could be an intense squall line or pherhaps multiple mcs's and will likely be a slight risk provided no downturn in models.
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Old 07-13-2012, 07:54 PM
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Default Re: Sunday July 15 Storm Risk

Quote:
Originally Posted by harrisale View Post
Sunday is looking promising for sure. Latest run showing solid 2000+ J/Kg Max CAPE for southern Ontario.

Will keep an eye on this.

Decent storm today with cloud tops hitting 45K at one point, CAPE was lower around 1500 J/Kg; so Sunday looks good
One thing I learned is it doesn't matter how much energy you have in the atmosphere without a trigger.

It's like having a barrel of gun powder with no ignition
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  #9  
Old 07-13-2012, 07:58 PM
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Default Re: Sunday July 15 Storm Risk

indeed Raedwulf, fortunately tomorrow and Sunday appear similar to today with the lake breezes acting as the triggers.
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Old 07-13-2012, 08:01 PM
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Default Re: Sunday July 15 Storm Risk

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raedwulf View Post
One thing I learned is it doesn't matter how much energy you have in the atmosphere without a trigger.

It's like having a barrel of gun powder with no ignition
Cool thanks for the info. I'm fairly new to the chasing game. Learning so much these days! Especially about the unique conditions in SW Ontario.
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