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Old 07-16-2012, 12:36 PM
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davefootball123 davefootball123 is offline
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Default Re: Tuesday Storm Threat

Parameters are quite favourable for severe storms tomorrow however the greatest risk for severe storms will be in Eastern Ontario into Southern Quebec...SREF has nice sig tors in Eastern Ontario with favourable EHI, SRH, and 0-6km shear values...When looking at high res guidance...models like the WRF-NMM and NAM-NMMB break out numerous storms in Eastern Ontario/Southern Quebec into upstate New York and Vermont where forcing along the front is greatest. Continuing the look at the high res solutions, they all leave South Central Ontario free of any convection with some storms forming in Extreme Southwestern Ontario. With that being said...given the favourable parameters, if some storms can form in South Central Ontario, they will have a lot to work with and could be very severe with very large hail and damaging winds. It all depends on if they go up or not
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