Thread: October 29-31
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Old 10-25-2012, 06:21 PM
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obwan obwan is offline
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Default October 29-31

Whats heading our way???? could be interesting, from KBUF

Quote:
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LARGE DIFFERENCES TAKE SHAPE AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG
BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES TRACK THE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN RECURVE IT BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD LONG ISLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT
TRACKING THE CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO DELAWARE/SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE NHC IS SUGGESTING A TRACK
IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...PLACING THE CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH A MORE RIGHT TRACKING
SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONTINUES TO DECREASE
AND CONFIDENCE OF A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
INCREASING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOK TO BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...WITH NOT ONLY LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT
ALSO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS IN A MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION...
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THERE IS
SOME LIMITED THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
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There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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