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Old 08-31-2010, 03:36 PM
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Derecho Derecho is offline
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Default Re: Hurricane Earl - Atlantic Canada Threat

Code:
HURRICANE EARL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT TUESDAY
31 AUGUST 2010.

...HURRICANE EARL APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...LIKELY TO
  IMPACT EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 68.5 W... ABOUT 230 NAUTICAL MILES OR 425 KM
NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 115 KNOTS... 213 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 939 MB. EARL IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS... 22 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
         ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 31  3.00 PM  21.5N  68.5W   940  115  213
SEP 01  3.00 AM  23.1N  70.4W   942  120  222
SEP 01  3.00 PM  25.5N  72.3W   942  120  222
SEP 02  3.00 AM  28.3N  73.9W   948  115  213
SEP 02  3.00 PM  31.4N  74.8W   952  110  204
SEP 03  3.00 AM  34.9N  74.0W   961  100  185
SEP 03  3.00 PM  38.6N  71.5W   970   90  167
SEP 04  3.00 AM  42.1N  68.1W   973   85  157
SEP 04  3.00 PM  45.9N  63.7W   980   75  139 TRANSITIONING
SEP 05  3.00 AM  49.8N  59.6W   990   60  111 TRANSITIONING
SEP 05  3.00 PM  54.6N  54.0W   994   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO WARNINGS TO SPEAK
OF HERE AS EARL IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY CURRENTLY NO WARNINGS
IN EFFECT. AS EARL APPROACHES THE MARITIMES,
 WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEK..AND FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT THIS COMING WEEKEND.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEORLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS EARL HAS BEEN WOBBLING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON BOTH
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO THE EYEWALL
DISPLACEMENT CYCLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTHWEST OF EARL SHOWS AN
AREA OF DRY AIR WHICH MAY INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

B. PROGNOSTIC FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

 EARL IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AS IT IS
BEEING STEERED BY THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. AS IT NEARS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, EARL WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE 48-72
HOUR TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER THEY BECOME DIVERGENT THEREAFTER. THERE
REMAINS A WIDE RANGE OF TRACK SCENERIOS LATER IN THE WEEK, RANGING
FROM A POTENTIAL LANDFALL AS FAR WEST AS MAINE AND AS FAR EAST AS
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

 AT THIS POINT...PROBABLISTIC COMPUTER MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ABOUT A
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS (60-70 KM/H) OVER LAND
IN NOVA SCOTIA. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATES A
 CATEGORY-ONE HURRICANE LANDFALL IN WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA..THIS ONLY
REFLECTS THE AVERAGE OF MANY SCENARIOS AND LANDFALL LOCATIONS 3 TO 4
DAYS AWAY. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 75 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARL ENTERING CANADIAN FORECAST WATERS AS A HURRICANE AND
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LANDFALLING HURRICANE IN NOVA SCOTIA.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO GIVE DETAILED IMPACTS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY TREND.

D. MARINE WEATHER TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO GIVE DETAILED IMPACTS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY TREND.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
        NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
31/18Z  175 150 120 160   120 120  60  75    60  50  25  45
01/06Z  175 150 120 160   120 120  60  75    60  50  25  45
01/18Z  175 150 120 160   120 120  60  75    60  50  25  45
02/06Z  175 150 120 160   120 120  60  75    60  50  25  45
02/18Z  175 150 120 160   120 120  60  75    60  50  25  45
03/06Z  165 150 110 150   100 100  50  65    50  50  25  40
03/18Z  150 140 100 140    90  90  45  60    45  45  20  30
04/06Z  130 120  80 110    70  70  35  50    30  30  20  30
04/18Z  130 120  65  90    50  50  25  40    20  20  10  10
05/06Z  140 140  65 100    35  35  20  30     0   0   0   0
05/18Z  160 160  75 120    25  25  10  15     0   0   0   0

END FOGARTY/MARCH
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