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Old 01-29-2011, 04:29 PM
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obwan obwan is offline
Rank: Cumulonimbus Cloud Chaser
 
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Default groundhog day (forecasted storm of Feb.1st/2nd)

Looks like we could get some snow and no rain this time. However, it may pass too far to our south. I like how the guys at the Buffalo NWS are bored with the weather this winter. The people in Northern Indiana and Ohio are already talking Blizzard on this storm as its packing strong winds as well.

THEN...AFTER TWO MONTHS OF NOTHING BUT NEAR CONSTANT NICKEL AND DIME
LAKE SNOWS...WE HAVE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS WE START THE NEW
MONTH...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TWO THREATS FOR APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL. THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN ONE FOR WED...BUT WE ALSO HAVE A
MORE SUBTLE THREAT FOR TUES MORNING NOW AS WELL.

BAROCLINICITY WILL STRENGTHEN AS 850 MB TEMP ISOTHERMS TIGHTEN UP MON
NT INTO WED...AND A STRONG JET WILL STREAK ACROSS PA ON TUESDAY...
PLACING OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW
LATE MON NT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUES. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH
WITH A GOOD 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR CWA...WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF MAX IT OUT ALONG NY-PA BORDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL INCREASE
POPS DRASTICALLY FROM 10 TO 60 FROM ABOUT 10Z-18Z TUES AND WE
COULD SEE A SOLID 1-3/2-4 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...LESSER CHC AND
LOWER AMTS E OF LK ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE RACES OFF TO NEW ENG TUES
AFTERNOON AND WE GET INTO A LULL LATER TUES AND MUCH OF TUES NT
BEFORE THE REAL ACTION BEGINS...

MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A MAJOR STORM LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUES TO NEAR CINCI BY EARLY WED. EVENTUALLY
THIS SYSTEM TRANSFERS TO THE COAST...BUT BOTH GFS AND EC DELAY THIS
PROCESS AND KEEP THE "PRIMARY" LOW THE MAIN PLAYER UP INTO EASTERN
OHIO...WITH ITS POTENT JET STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A SLUG OF 0.5 TO 1
INCH QPF UP ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NY FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 18Z WED. EC
HAS BEEN ON THE HEAVIER SIDE WITH A STRIP OVER VERY HEAVY
QPF...1-1.5 INCH...FROM CHI TO DET TO YYZ AND BUF...BUT GFS LOOK
MORE REALISTIC WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOW WED
MORNING...THEN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT AS A DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS
INTO ONTARIO WHILE COASTAL GETS GOING LATER WED AND WED EVE...THEN
SOME WRAPAROUND SWINGS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA WED NT.

THIS IS STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE AS 12Z GEM KEEP BULK OF SNOW SOUTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MAX PRECIP NEAR NY-PA BORDER (AN INCH) BUT A
SOLID 0.5 TO SOUTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
WARMER MODEL...BUT EVEN THIS IS A BIT COLDER THAN LAST RUN...WITH
850 MB ZERO ISOTHERM JUST TOUCHING OUR SRN TIER FOR AWHILE WED SO A
LITTLE SLEET COULDNT BE RULED OUT.
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