Thread: Sunday May 29
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Old 05-29-2011, 08:47 AM
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obwan obwan is offline
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Default Re: Sunday May 29

This afternoons outlook from SPC. In graphics things look good for some sevelopment but in their text they don't sound so confident.

here is the text
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES

...MID MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN
MO/IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEING FORCED MAINLY BY WARM
ADVECTION NEAR A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF
40 KTS IS EXPECTED TO HELP STORMS MERGE INTO AN MCS. THIS SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS...NAM...AND
ECMWF. THIS POTENTIAL MCS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/VEERING PROFILES...FEEDING A MOIST AND STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD. INDICATIONS ARE A CONCENTRATED SWATCH OF
DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL INCLUDING THE
CHICAGO AREA...AND PROCEEDING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH STORM
MODE MAY DISRUPT SUPERCELL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL...AREAS OF ROTATION
MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT
SHOULD FURTHER HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP LOADING/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.



Day 1 this afternoons oulook, hail prob, tornado prob and wind prob
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Last edited by obwan; 05-29-2011 at 08:53 AM.
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