Thread: Sunday May 29
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Old 05-28-2011, 02:47 PM
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Derecho Derecho is offline
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Default Re: Sunday May 29

I'm down here on the Michigan border and I'm watching this one closely!

Code:
 ...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...
   THE PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING NWD SUNDAY NIGHT.  A FEW ELEVATED STORMS
   MAY BE IN PROGRESS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COULD POSE A THREAT
   FOR HAIL.  WARM SECTOR SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY
   MORNING ACTIVITY...AS RICHER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/
   AND EML PLUME ADVECT NEWD DURING THE DAY. A SLOWLY BUILDING UPPER
   RIDGE AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND BEST
   CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN COOL SECTOR NORTH
   OF WARM FRONT.  HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONCERN
   THAT A WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY BEFORE THE WARMER EML PLUME ARRIVES.  IF THIS OCCURS
   0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
   SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS INTO THE
   AFTERNOON.  THUS THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE
   THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS AS WELL AS A
   SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS.
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