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Raedwulf 08-02-2011 10:59 PM

Re: All Ontario Confirmed & Probable Tornadoes
 
Perhaps, perhaps not. Maybe there were 100 tornados. Unfortunately they are unconfirmed. Even if you witnessed it right in your back yard. It never got recorded..so anything over that is pure speculation based off a biased opinion.

Usually depends on the level of optimism of the individual. Someone optimistic may come up with an even higher number..which is why it doesn't count. It isn't recorded..you could speculate anything..

DarkSky 08-02-2011 11:42 PM

Re: All Ontario Confirmed & Probable Tornadoes
 
And realistically, we don't NEED to spend money on unpopulated areas. If a big tornado goes through a forest on a hillside, 100miles away from the closest person, it doesn't really matter if it's known or not. We only need to invest money into tracking and knowing about tornadoes that affect us.

The US, with pretty much their entire country covered with settlements, needs a lot more coverage, so therefore are able to track pretty much their whole country on radar. And with 10X our population, they have the funds to do so. We could very well get 500-1000 tornadoes a year, but when only a small fraction of Canada is covered by radar, small fractions inhabited by people, there's no way we'll ever know a precise number.

.. and even if they do occur in an area covered by radar and is populated, EC still confirms less than half the tornadoes that occur. I remember an F0 went through Niagara on the Lake years ago, cutting a very visible 30-70m swath through the vineyards that a professor at Brock University commented on, and EC didn't even know about it.

So a much as posting stats on tornadoes are appreciated, they are only a minute fraction of what actually occurs. And if Canada records 100 tornadoes per year, over 100 years, that's 10,000 tornadoes. (of course 100/year is only a minute fraction of what actually occurs, but there's no way to ever discover all of them).

Derecho 08-02-2011 11:47 PM

Re: All Ontario Confirmed & Probable Tornadoes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DarkSky (Post 3491)

I remember an F0 went through Niagara on the Lake years ago, cutting a very visible 30-70m swath through the vineyards that a professor at Brock University commented on, and EC didn't even know about it.

Do you remember what date? Just out of curiosity.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DarkSky (Post 3491)
So a much as posting stats on tornadoes are appreciated, they are only a minute fraction of what actually occurs.

It's just confirmed and probable tornadoes. Disclaimer: not the actual count, just the confirmed or probable count. lol

Smokin Joe 08-03-2011 10:44 AM

Re: All Ontario Confirmed & Probable Tornadoes
 
I think that these stats are valuable, even if due to circumstances they are incomplete. In the US if a tornado passes through 3 counties I think they count it as 3 tornados.....I don't think that is good.

I jones for more info on tornados in ontario......I really think EC should invest some of that money in getting canadians access to free level 3 radar, and also re-designing the website so that the convective outlook is a stand alone link on the main menu among other things....but I'm getting off topic

Derecho 08-03-2011 02:28 PM

Re: All Ontario Confirmed & Probable Tornadoes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Smokin Joe (Post 3493)
I think that these stats are valuable, even if due to circumstances they are incomplete. In the US if a tornado passes through 3 counties I think they count it as 3 tornados.....I don't think that is good.

The NWS does not count a tornado as being two or more just because it crossed political boundaries. All goes by the touchdown point and the dissipation point.

And these stats are extremely important to understanding Ontario tornado history and heck this is probably the first time you all have seen a complete set of data for tornado records in Ontario. I spent three weeks putting this together. And who cares if 100% of tornadoes aren't being confirmed. It's the same in the US. They still miss a lot of tornadoes especially in much of the open country of the Plains from Montana SE to Arkansas. Radar coverage is terrible in that region, there is very little population, and it's mostly open fields. If no one see's the tornado touchdown, especially at night, it goes unnoticed. And that happens just as often in the US as it does in Ontario.

Environment Canada WFO Toronto does an amazing job confirming tornadoes in Ontario. They only just recently ramped up survey quality, especially in rural areas in central, eastern, and northern Ontario. Cut them some slack. Most other offices don't even bother with surveys.

Smokin Joe 08-03-2011 03:39 PM

Re: All Ontario Confirmed & Probable Tornadoes
 
maybe i was reading this wrong but I thought the totals were inflated in the states from reading this from tornado faq's from NOAA:

"What are county-segments in NCDC tornado data? A county-segment is that portion of a tornado's path within a single county. If a tornado stays in one county, then a "tornado" is the same as a "segment." But this also means that tornadoes are counted twice when they cross into another county, three times when they enter a third county, and so forth. The reason for county-segment tornado recordkeeping is that the National Weather Service historically has verified tornado warnings by county. So when you look at NCDC tornado databases or the NWS Natural Hazard Statistics (based on Storm Data), you are not counting tornadoes, but instead county-segments of tornado tracks. This causes inflation of the tornado totals often reported by media and others who do not notice this important distinction." "

Derecho 08-03-2011 05:49 PM

Re: All Ontario Confirmed & Probable Tornadoes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Smokin Joe (Post 3496)
maybe i was reading this wrong but I thought the totals were inflated in the states from reading this from tornado faq's from NOAA:

"What are county-segments in NCDC tornado data? A county-segment is that portion of a tornado's path within a single county. If a tornado stays in one county, then a "tornado" is the same as a "segment." But this also means that tornadoes are counted twice when they cross into another county, three times when they enter a third county, and so forth. The reason for county-segment tornado recordkeeping is that the National Weather Service historically has verified tornado warnings by county. So when you look at NCDC tornado databases or the NWS Natural Hazard Statistics (based on Storm Data), you are not counting tornadoes, but instead county-segments of tornado tracks. This causes inflation of the tornado totals often reported by media and others who do not notice this important distinction." "

Oh that's for NCDC archives. They have drop down menus to select county data so if a tornado moved through three counties it appears three times, but includes a special note about being the same tornado that some must ignore.

NWS/SPC averages of 1300-1600 tornadoes a year are still correct and NWS confirmations are still correct. Just the NCDC does it differently.

DarkSky 08-04-2011 02:13 AM

Re: All Ontario Confirmed & Probable Tornadoes
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Derecho (Post 3492)
Do you remember what date? Just out of curiosity.

Pre-2000. Maybe around '98 or '99 ?? There was an article in the city paper about it.

Derecho 10-26-2011 11:17 PM

Re: All Ontario Confirmed & Probable Tornadoes
 
These lists and maps can now only be used as general guidance as to what these numbers may look like. After a lengthy several month long investigation, several Environment Canada and National Weather Service data sources are not aligning. An extreme case has been uncovered in Hamilton where three different Environment Canada sources are confirming three different tallies for two segments panning 1979-2004 and 1984-2001 and also the original 1792-2009.

Derecho 01-31-2012 04:14 AM

Re: All Ontario Confirmed & Probable Tornadoes
 
Updated first post.


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