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Derecho 05-03-2010 10:58 AM

Severe Storms Possible Wed & Friday
 
EDIT: CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY NOW.

Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across southern Ontario.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
ON DAY 5...CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ACCELERATES
NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
STILL APPEARS THAT A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HERE...ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL BE QUITE OPTIMAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND/OR A LARGE-SCALE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

DarkSky 05-03-2010 01:28 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Hmm... I don't trust any forecasts beyond 24hrs. (if that) Yesterdays forecast was for cloud and rain today. It's been blue skies and strong sunshine all day long. My guess is that each 24 hrs the chance of the forecast being correct splits by 50% :)

Smokin Joe 05-03-2010 03:00 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Giddy up! I'm off Friday so keeping my fingers crossed.....hope I'm not a jinx

Derecho 05-03-2010 03:35 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Smokin Joe (Post 717)
Giddy up! I'm off Friday so keeping my fingers crossed.....hope I'm not a jinx

I'm off Friday, too, and Saturday! That's a good 48 hours of room for the storms to move. Looking at dewpoint temperatures, I'm concerned for potential because GFS is only indicating 50F around here... with the good dews staying in Ohio/PA. Still a few days, this bears watching!!

(It's like the week before Christmas)

xxCanuck 05-03-2010 04:47 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DarkSky (Post 716)
Hmm... I don't trust any forecasts beyond 24hrs. (if that) Yesterdays forecast was for cloud and rain today. It's been blue skies and strong sunshine all day long. My guess is that each 24 hrs the chance of the forecast being correct splits by 50% :)

I happen to agree. Here we were supposed to have Rain and potential for Thunderstorms but its a beautiful day out.

Derecho 05-04-2010 06:55 AM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
I'm not too impressed by the temperatures on Friday. 15C.

There is potential tomorrow for severe thunderstorms, a slight risk is in effect from Woodstock southward. Hail and damaging winds are the forecast main threat.

Derecho 05-04-2010 01:01 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
So, it's looking good now. SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for most of Southern Ontario. Potential exists for bow echo thunderstorms and perhaps supercells through the early afternoon to evening across southern Ontario ahead of a cold front!

:D

Derecho 05-04-2010 07:38 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Wed & Friday
 
Valid 21z tomorrow: ;)

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/mode...EHI_3000_M.png

Derecho 05-05-2010 09:58 AM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Slight risk reissued for southern Ontario today by the SPC!

From EC:


TODAY AND TONIGHT..CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION. AS THE
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES EASTWARD, THE COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

Derecho 05-05-2010 02:54 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:19 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 5 MAY 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= HURON - PERTH.

STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H AND SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL CROSS THE REGIONS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS.

DarkSky 05-05-2010 03:16 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Lets see those watches push father ENE and into the Niagara region. All this sunshine and 25-30C weather is becoming a tad boring :D

Derecho 05-05-2010 04:00 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DarkSky (Post 742)
Lets see those watches push father ENE and into the Niagara region. All this sunshine and 25-30C weather is becoming a tad boring :D

Waterloo Region is under a warning for a dwindling storm that's just about gone poof. The cell was producing 60-100 bolts of lightning when it was near Mitchell, it had a 1.68 hail marker and the storm track had it directly going over my house. Once it reached the Waterloo/Perth county line, it had a major shift east and its 60-65dbz are now 49dbz. I'm not impressed.

The cells in Lambton/Kent/Essex counties are impressive, 70dbz, three of them have shown strong SRV rotation. Strong rotation is located northwest of Chatham about 15km, another area of rotation is near Alvinston, about 20 minutes ago it was very broad, it's tightened since. A third area was just south of Windsor about 30 minutes ago.

Derecho 05-05-2010 04:20 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
3 Attachment(s)
I wouldn't be surprised if a tornado touched down somewhere from Lake St. Clair to Thamesville in Kent County judging by these SRV scans from earlier:

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 04:21 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
http://i40.tinypic.com/2lsjy3c.jpg

I suck at paint and cameras but this is what I saw north of Wallaceburg, good looking shelf cloud

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 04:25 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
oh and at the time of that pic, this was the radar

http://i44.tinypic.com/t64g3k.jpg

Derecho 05-05-2010 04:25 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by ontariolightning (Post 745)
http://i40.tinypic.com/2lsjy3c.jpg

I suck at paint and cameras but this is what I saw north of Wallaceburg, good looking shelf cloud

Here is the radar presentation from that cell:

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 04:30 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
I don't think that is it, it was the cell before that cause I was outside at the park watching it to my north and it wasn't raining on me

Wet Paws 05-05-2010 04:31 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lennon (Post 743)
Waterloo Region is under a warning for a dwindling storm that's just about gone poof. The cell was producing 60-100 bolts of lightning when it was near Mitchell, it had a 1.68 hail marker and the storm track had it directly going over my house. Once it reached the Waterloo/Perth county line, it had a major shift east and its 60-65dbz are now 49dbz. I'm not impressed.

The cells in Lambton/Kent/Essex counties are impressive, 70dbz, three of them have shown strong SRV rotation. Strong rotation is located northwest of Chatham about 15km, another area of rotation is near Alvinston, about 20 minutes ago it was very broad, it's tightened since. A third area was just south of Windsor about 30 minutes ago.

Hi Lennon, I wish I was here to see it but I was not home yet and missed it passing through Mitchell. I love watching weather but am really green when it comes to everything you said. Also wish I had a camera when I seen it moving pass Stratford. Purposely took the back road so I could watch it. New here and will contribute what I can....maybe I can at least report what I see here before it comes to you in KW.

Derecho 05-05-2010 04:35 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Wet Paws (Post 749)
Hi Lennon, I wish I was here to see it but I was not home yet and missed it passing through Mitchell. I love watching weather but am really green when it comes to everything you said. Also wish I had a camera when I seen it moving pass Stratford. Purposely took the back road so I could watch it. New here and will contribute what I can....maybe I can at least report what I see here before it comes to you in KW.

It fizzled out as it passed me, now it's suddenly developed about 10km east of me. :mad:

It actually stayed pretty south of Mitchell.

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 04:38 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
it looked better in real life, but here is the shelf clouds evolution

http://i39.tinypic.com/iptsw1.jpg

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 04:39 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
st mary's gets a lot of tornadic storms it seems

Derecho 05-05-2010 04:43 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ontariolightning (Post 748)
I don't think that is it, it was the cell before that cause I was outside at the park watching it to my north and it wasn't raining on me

Then, it was probably the cell that hit Port Lambton. It's now near St. Thomas. My radar program only goes back so many scans. That storm was impressive as it was crossing the border, I should have taken a screen shot.

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 04:45 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
yeah, it hit port lambton / sombra pretty hard

Derecho 05-05-2010 04:45 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ontariolightning (Post 752)
st mary's gets a lot of tornadic storms it seems

The storm wasn't rotating at the time. If you're referring to the diamond shaped marker in the cell, it's a small hail marker.

EDIT: TWN is reporting a funnel cloud was spotted by a stormline caller in Kitchener... it was probably a 'SLC'... or 'scary looking cloud'.
EDIT EDIT: I think I know what the caller was reporting, there was a lowering where moisture was being drawn into the storm out ahead of the cell, that was probably it.

Derecho 05-05-2010 04:46 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ontariolightning (Post 754)
yeah, it hit port lambton / sombra pretty hard

Is there damages?

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 04:48 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
My aunt said her garbage cans went flying and a lot of tree branches are off the trees, and she said someone told her that a tree fell on someones car, that is in Sombra

Wet Paws 05-05-2010 04:49 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
That may have been the formation I seen near Stratford (headed toward Kitchener) wishing I had a camera.

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 04:50 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
ah, scud very rarely tricks me, I am sure a few people thought a tornado was forming here earlier, the scud was putting on quite a show

Derecho 05-05-2010 04:52 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ontariolightning (Post 757)
My aunt said her garbage cans went flying and a lot of tree branches are off the trees, and she said someone told her that a tree fell on someones car, that is in Sombra

I know Sombra quite well, use the border crossing there a lot. Plus, my family lives in Corunna. Any way you can get up there to take photos of the damage?

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 04:54 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
I sold my car so I have no way to get there, my aunt said it wasn't a big tree, but I am guessing the winds would have at least had to have been 80 km/h right?

Derecho 05-05-2010 04:55 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ontariolightning (Post 762)
I sold my car so I have no way to get there, my aunt said it wasn't a big tree, but I am guessing the winds would have at least had to have been 80 km/h right?

Sounds about right. A spotter reported 75kmh winds somewhere in the area.

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 04:57 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
1.25 inch hail north east of Leamington

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 05:01 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
environment canada is terrible at warnings, doesn't even say where the severe storms are and where they will be at

xxCanuck 05-05-2010 05:04 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
We have Rain and weak Thunder here right now.

Derecho 05-05-2010 05:05 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ontariolightning (Post 765)
environment canada is terrible at warnings, doesn't even say where the severe storms are and where they will be at

You're preaching to the choir :rolleyes:

The new Canada-wide emergency alert system goes into effect next month... EC performs well with warnings when it's an isolated event. But, put together three or four thunderstorms, one or two severe, then EC can't handle it.

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 05:07 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
it's about time we get one

Derecho 05-05-2010 05:08 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Very intense thunderstorm right now over me. Tropical downpour and lots of thunder. This is worse than the severe thunderstorm we had an hour ago.

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 05:10 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
oh crap, becareful the lightning doesn't fry your electronics!

Derecho 05-05-2010 05:12 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ontariolightning (Post 770)
oh crap, becareful the lightning doesn't fry your electronics!

Surge protector. Plus, it's not that intense of lightning. Just more intense than the one thunder I heard during the 'severe' thunderstorm earlier.

EDIT: I'm not seeing any severe threat for Friday over southern Ontario. It looks like it will all stay stateside. Essex, Kent, Lambton, Elgin & Middlesex counties might see something, though.

ontariolightning 05-05-2010 05:14 PM

Re: Severe Storms Possible Friday
 
yes, learned that the hard way in 2003 when we were in the middle of an electrical storm, fried our tv, two phones and computer


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